hellooooo, page-4

Wearthefoxhat,

I am following the following valuation of

"A$0.56/share assumes US$2.50/lb long term copper price, A$/US$ = 0.80 and allowing for converting note dilution assuming conversion in July 2011 at A$0.20share. If we ascribe zero value for Roseby, the valuation still comes to A$0.30/share. Recent share price gains suggest the market is slowly waking up to the fact that AOH is moving rapidly to production status and not just another copper exploration hopeful."

And I note that copper prices are on a winning streak.

We currently have the highest copper prices since December last year. That valuation is now undervalued as a result. With input from Woteva, it appears we are looking at $1.20 to $2.20.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajV_QBssc3.w

Copper Heads for Longest Winning Streak Since July on Supplies
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Glenys Sim

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Copper climbed for a fifth day, set for its longest rally since July, on concern supplies may lag behind demand as global inventories shrink and on expectation the Federal Reserve may take more steps to boost economic growth.

Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.6 percent to $8,780 a metric ton, the highest price since Nov. 12, and traded at $8,767 at 10:04 a.m. in Singapore.

?There are several reasons to push prices higher, including falling stockpiles and the possibility of further easing by the Federal Reserve,? Wang Yangyi, an analyst at Nanhua Futures Co., said from Zhejiang. ?Commodities as a whole are also benefitting from investors looking for an alternative investment to declining currencies.?

The metal for March-delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed as much as 0.4 percent to 66,050 yuan ($9,932) a ton, the highest price in three weeks. The most-active contract is up for a sixth day, the longest winning streak since February. Futures on the Comex in New York were little changed after gaining as much as 0.8 percent to $4.029 a pound, also the highest level since Nov. 12.

Copper stockpiles in LME warehouses have shrunk 30 percent this year, on course for the first annual decline since 2004. Inventories dropped to 352,425 tons on Dec. 2, the lowest level since October 2009. Stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped last week for a second week.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said U.S. unemployment may take five years to fall to a normal level and that Fed purchases of Treasury securities beyond the $600 billion announced last month are possible. The unemployment rate rose to a seven-month high of 9.8 percent in November as payroll growth slowed to 39,000 from 172,000, a Labor Department report showed Dec. 3.


The prospect of an exchange-traded fund is also boosting investor confidence in the metal used in construction and automobiles, said Wang.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., which will introduce a U.S. exchange- traded fund for physical copper, has acquired more than half of the copper inventory tracked by the London Metal Exchange, the Daily Telegraph reported on Dec. 3, citing ?a source close to the situation.?

J.P. Morgan Physical Copper Trust will hold only so-called grade-A copper and will not trade underlying futures, the bank said in an Oct. 22 filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Aluminum in London rose 1.1 percent to $2,345 a ton, zinc gained 1.4 percent to $2,249.75 a ton and lead climbed 0.7 percent to $2,357 a ton. Nickel advanced 0.6 percent to $23,645 a ton, while tin increased 0.8 percent to $25,570 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at [email protected]

Last Updated: December 5, 2010 21:35 EST