Rudd is betting that HE can actually increase international commodoties prices due to the shortage of supply of commoddite that he will artifically create with this new tax!
therefore, when he introduces that tax, shortage in commodoties occur, commmodoties prices go higher, the amount of profits per tonne becomes higher (due to higher prices & shortage of supply) & then share holders still get their current normal cut while the Aust govt got the "increased value" in its pocket from China & whoever buys our metals!!
so for example: metal X was worth $100/t, profit is $60/t, after shortage metal X became worth $150/t, cost stays the same at $40/t but profits now go HIGHER & becomes $110/t - note: $50/t higher profit than now due to increased metals prices.
govt then gets 40% of profit which is $44/t (40% supre tax) while shareholders would still get $66/t.... which at the time would be the same as the original $60/t that is currently being made!
if metals prices don't go up by the equivalent of 40% - 50% then shareholders pay the difference! mining companies will then push up their price.
Another result: it will lower the exploration/mining of high risk projects & will close down mines with low grades & at the end cause shortage in commodoties & again increase the int'l price for commodoties .... & again... bob is your uncle!!!
funny way of thinking ...... international market manipulation in its best shape & CHINA/INDIA will never be happy with Rudd or this new tax by any way!!!
he's simply betting that the international market will pay for his spending spree since GFC via paying him higher metals prices & he'll force it by causing an artifical shortage of supply of commodities!!!
IMO, if this tax goes through, Rudd/labour can say bye bye to federal govt for many years to come!!!
