>>Well for my money the risk reward is far too great so close to the 'end game' in the Whilcherry Ore project. It is funny how a supposed large holder in prevous thread announces his sell down on a Public Forum, I suspect in the hope of picking up more in the 30s. We can only dream to accummalate at these levels IMO. Holders look very tight at this level.
LT Holders will know we are on the verge of what could be a great DFS or NOT. If certain questions are explained in black and white regarding the Ore production Project;
1) Shipping costs: Ian has instructed me that the buyer is to pay these, yet will they pay double the freight costs and also the fair market value for Ore. I think not, yet MD Ian Finch stands by previous reports that FOB Sales minus FOB Costs will be their profitability before Tax.
Btw 35 Mil to 75 Mil. In first year then double the next. Shipping costs are extraordinarily high due to using small ships. Using small ships for between 1-2 MTA seems unusual unless...thus bringing us to point 2... that some are here are aware of.
2) Port Access: Others in the field have communicated that IFE\TRF have no access and very little options for Port access in 2011. Unless they were to pay a super high premium. Ian Finch has stated that there is many options available and he has been in meetings all week with the port authorities (PA). Nothing seems certain and this has weighed heavily on the SP IMO.
3) What is the Ore loading target date now. To most investors I have discussed this with, it seems an imposibility that April 2011 will be the first shipment. Most probable target IMO would be Q3-4 2011, as several items appear to be outstanding in the logistical leadup to the very important first productive shipment. A lot of red tape, shipping, port access, etc issues are outstanding. Optimistically we are looking at Q3 2011 IMO. Yet Ian Finch now states Q2 as opposed to April 2011. Q2 2011 is a very optimistic target IMO (5-6 months away).
The above seem to be the most pressing issues and issues that Ian Finch is somewhat vague about. The big question being 'Will he discuss the true expected profitability of the project from Yr 1, true shipping arrangements, port access accessibility, new target dates and make them clear and concise for investors. Or will he continue to be somewhat vague as he works through all the issues and red tape.
Only time will tell. Going by the volume of late I would not expect too much from the DFS. Yet in saying all of this the very small MC make it a bargain as we grow ever closer to the first shipment. Around the time the project as a whole between IFE\TRF should be valued over 300Mil. IMO once the first shipment is made.
Of corse other factors come into play when calcualting the actual MC of both IFE and TRF. Yet add this true value into both the stocks and we are looking at multi baggers of both in the ST to MT.
Their time will come IMO. For my money it is a muilti bagger IF the above issues are resolved in a timely fashion. At current MC value I see very few have a real belief that any Ore shipment will head out in 2011-12.
For my money- Ian will get the job done yet shipments will be pushed back until Q3 2011. Unless he resolves the above very quickly.
Let us not forget that we are only 5 months away from the expected first shipment date. I think ANY firm dates even later in the year will be taken as a positive by the market. Providing essential issues are cleared up then we may see some larger sellers coming into the market.
Cheers JAY<<
TYX Price at posting:
86.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
