Part Three cont.
Ive pretty well covered all the issues now,except the one I dont want to deal with in case I dont like the conclusion I finish up with. Its the question of whether ,when the outstanding licences come through,the production will ramp back up to significantly better levels or whether they wont because its the undisclosed-to-date , potentially large, fall-off in the production from (most of?)the volcanic wells that I think has occurred that is the real cause of the low production,not the absence of licences to sell the product.So IM going to avoid the issue but Im unhappy that the 2 Boards have not been prepared to admit what I firmly believe to be true,that certain people in both companies goofed by going 100% down the volcanic path in respect of new drilling from
early 2007 before sufficient time had elapsed for those headline-grabbing production figures like 3,000 and 5,000 bopd to be shown as sustainable- stopping all sandstone drilling as a consequence until WBext 1 in July (not August) 2010.
I believe that about October 2009 the volcanic fall-offs were viewed to be pretty unacceptable and decisions were made to burn the midnight oil to see if the sandstone assets could reasonably be considered as likely to be able to reinstate the position. A decision to reinvigorate the sandstones is/was an easy one ,IMO, because they are the reliable assets the partnership was founded on and the limited number of small sandstone wells at WB have performed satisfactorily and reliably over as much as 7 or 8 years( consistent with Sirikits reliable performance to the north of WB and over nearly 30 years) and it is inconceivable that these assets would lie dormant forever as far as further drilling is concerned.
The good news is that the partners got lucky with the first of the new sandstone wells as 550bopd from the F layer and a potential 250 from the G layer are absolutely spectacular results and,as I will explain in my final post on the subject,are the sort of R E L I A B L E result that sandstone drills usually produce in Thailand and one you can build a company on and even borrow money against from the banks.
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