here, page-25

if it is an art, not a science, then what the heck does business have to do with it?

lol. look, you overlook the fundamental margins which make this a low risk decision in favour of the cultural nuances which mean it is not a zero risk decision. that's obviously where your risk profile sits, and that's fine.

but lets look at it from both sides.

for you, the fact that the arab states operate in, for want of a better expression, a more ethereal sphere, means that money invested here is at risk of going nowhere.

but for me, the facts that the EV of a 50% stake in a post DFS project with a NPV of $170m, combined with the EV of two proven high grade copper exploration projects in Oman, amounts to around $7m total, and that they have about $6m cash, a well credentialed board, and a blue chip register, well all these facts mean that there is more upside than risk.


i appreciate the point you make, but i don't think it changes anything in determining the speculative value of the company, which is what i am doing. you want to wait for bluechip certification before buying, that's fine. buy it at 20c without risk.

i operate on a different methodology.

i had this same argument for over a year when i invested in shale gas plays, particularly NSE. as a speculative investment with high risks attached owing to it's location, it went from 6 to 80c.

now that all the majors are involved and the canning basin has been derisked, it is only 13c again.

horses for courses