MSP maxsec group limited

Here's an idea

  1. 1,912 Posts.
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    Stop Complaining. Fear and Anger get in the way of rational thought and that is dangerous when investing.

    Start Carefully considering what's going on here and try to value our collective souls.

    Why do I say such? I personally doubt this merger is going through: here are my reasons:

    No Vote has leverage
    We have two camps. Yes and No. The No camp has the advantage because of the smaller hurdles. Each No vote almost has leverage. Take compulsory acquisition target of 80%. The No vote requires 20%. Lets say one shareholder has 5 million shares wishing to vote No. That is equal to just over 1% of the total company. That 1% represents 5% of the NO requirement, and only 1.25% of the requirement in Yes camp.

    Top Twenty Make up
    Total held around the 60% mark. It would be a brave man/woman to bet their house on the fact that every single one of those Top Twenties are Yes voter.  Every loss to the yes camp makes yes harder, no easier.

    Highly Fragmented Share Registry
    266 shareholders hold more than 100,000 shares. For many of those 100,000 would be too small a holding to justify in a portfolio. This high fragmentation could be bad as un-engaged holders don't bother to vote thereby allowing Chairman's proxy. Dangerous not to vote. Think Trump. The flip side is that if the top 20 hold a minimum of 5 million shares, that means there 261 others that hold a minimum of 100,000.

    Multiple Holds across singular investors
    That is me. I make up at least 4 of those 261 holders with a cumulative holding which would put me in the top 20. This could apply to others as well.

    Disruption
    A sophisticated investor with deeper pockets than mine may have been watching this from sidelines and thinking;
      Bid lodged, Bid accepted ........what ........are you serious ? you have to do more than that buddy? Lets buy a blocking stake. If I block it, the price goes up.

    Existing No Holders
    Realising the same as any of the reasons above continuing to buy more.

    FFT Doesn't have enough cash to strengthen its position of 13%
    They have invested  $1.8 million for 13% and they have $5.5 million in the bank. With next cash outflows next quarter listed below which doesn't mention anything of further investing......but it wouldn't put it past them.
    fft.jpg

    Quite frankly I'm of the opinion that the shared incompetence of both boards will actually make this stock rise.
    Here's how? FFT's under funding, MSP's arrogance to first accept, the collective under estimation of smaller holders to vote no. FFT will hold its stake and tighten the registry (which MSP is in desparate need of).

    Then again FFT hasn't been a raging cashflow financial success story and may need to sell down its holdings to fun operations......but I can't see that happening for a long while.

    For a a bit of fun considering the AGM is around the corner read up on my review of last year's AGM. I will be there again this year.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/the-times-are-a-changin.3068858/?post_id=20879552#.WeaH0miCxPY


    We watch with interest.

    There are people who are buying at the moment who want no. there are people that are buying that want yes ......


    GLTNV

    Good luck to No Voters
 
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