Some things are easy to predict. Like, Kamala Harris will win...

Some things are easy to predict. Like, Kamala Harris will win the popular vote. Other things are impossible to predict. Like, her demagogue opponent may or may not win the Electoral College vote.

It was easy for me to predict the last couple years that BLM would not have the final word on Big Sandy drilling. I was attacked every time I predicted the federal courts would have the final word, but I was right. But what will that final word be? My only prediction is that it won’t come this week.

True, Judge Humetewa may rule for or against a preliminary injunction. But either way, her decision will be appealed to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco. Then three judges, selected at random, will review the BLM file and the District Court evidence.

Even if Judge Humetewa denies the injunction, she can and probably will allow a stay pending appeal.

It’s predictable that the judge’s decision will not be influenced by her status as a Hopi, and as an expert on Native American law. The Hopi are a matriarchal society with a history of conflict with the Navajo,

https://www.hcn.org/issues/issue-214/navajo-hopi-dispute-persists/

But AZL playing the Navajo card will not backfire in her courtroom and the fact that BLM and AZL hire men to represent them and Earthjustice provides attorneys who are women is not a factor.

Likewise, before she was a judge, Humetewa was on the same federal government payroll as the BLM lawyers is not a factor. ==Her decision will be based only on her reading of the NHPA and NEPA statutes that instruct BLM on how to review the AZL application. If BLM followed the rules, the Hualapai lose. If they did not, then they have to start all over.

Maybe she is slightly more likely to uphold her earlier decision, to grant the temporary restraining order. But her concern is mostly with not being reversed by the appeals court, even if it means reversing herself.

Remember, though, that the Hualapai are not asking for a “No.” They are asking for a modified “Yes.”

It will be interesting to read the parties’ summations that are due by Tuesday. If they focus on hydrology, the lawyers miss the point. The judge is not a hydrologist. They must focus – and Judge Humetewa has asked for this – on the applicable statutes from NHPA and NEPA.