Hermie's FAR competition, page-43

Thanks Hermie

I will take the opportunity to amend mine, please. I had opted for 28 cents but would like to cut my forecast to 18 cents.

Some might interpret that as a loss of confidence, but let me explain my rationale.

I believe the 2C results and Kenya farm-out have the potential to lift us into the 20s, but that we'll struggle to sustain that because:

> 28 cents equates to a market cap of almost a billion dollars and I don't think that's sustainable until we at least have proven reserves.
> There is likely to be some dilution, depending on our finance plan.
> OP is likely be weaker than expected and stay that way longer than expected before bouncing strongly.
> 2015 is basically slated as a 'planning' year, dominated by FAN/SNE appraisal planning and preparation.
> I believe the delay in announcing Kenyan farm-out will like push drilling into early 2016.
> History shows our price is likely to drift sans fresh announcements.

So a drift back to 18 cents by 31 December.

2016, on the other hand ... likely discovery in Kenya, Senegal appraisal results, plan to drill Buried Hills, OP recovery underway, etc etc. Events much more likely, I think, to drive big, sustainable SP increases.

By the way, I hope I lose this competition by a big margin!!!

OOO