hers comes the rebound, page-33

Hi shetoldmeso

Re; "...Hi Lapdog im reasonably new to EWT but am really taking to it, can I pick your brains now and then?..."

You flatter me & it would give my pleasure if I can be of assistance.

However, I do not profess to be an EW expert, an equities expert or a financial advisor of any kind - in fact I am still trying to figure out what I am comfortable with. I commenced investing_trading with some conviction in equities in June 2007 [the top of the market] & I seem to be defining myself as a 'trader-investor' [the average length of my trades is 93 days].

You are absolutely correct in pointing our that under EW theory the end of a cycle is marked by an ABC corrective phase [ie. 5 waves in the direction of the trend & 3 counter to the trend]. Of course that ABC corrective pattern may itself flag the start of a new Elliott Wave counter to the trends of the previous one - rightly or wrongly that is what I am searching for.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp?viewed=1

IMO the key to this is the basis of EW theory - the ebb & flow of investor sentiment. As mongombolo recently pointed out US investors have now rejected the doom & gloom for 4 consecutive days - and in emphatic manner. We now await the impact of investor reflection & strength of reported new / extra doom & gloom - IMO the on balance judgements of Obama & his new team / measures they implement will be core to this & either usher in the next bull market or lead to a calamitous collapse of unrivalled proportions. As a glass half-full person I am betting on the former scenario but admit to still having most of my money as cash.

IMO picking the end of each Elliott Wave in an EW cycle is the challenge & frustration of EW theory - it can prove very costly! The ProfitSource software I use generates EW's based on data patterns. However, though it may show an EW for a time it may then vaporise as the fundamental criteria are corrupted. At other times it can be staggeringly accurate!

As a result considerable caution [healthy scepticism?] is needed - my approach to trading uses a mixture of EWs, GANN ABC swing theory, slow moving averages, Bollinger Bands, the Stochastic Indicator & RSI indicator + volume.

4YIO - NFA