nb1,GD didnt sugar-coat the bad news - which is good sign in my...

nb1,

GD didnt sugar-coat the bad news - which is good sign in my book.

its important to remember that the bad news is very 2006.

the awb story for this year (2007) is still:
1. bullish grain prices (its handy to note that AWB is not hedging anything this year) - driven by corn/ethanol, which might also result in acreage switching away from wheat in the US
2. recovery in australian farm production
3. wheat demand from india (which imported 3.5 million MT last year from the US and Australia) - which is only likely to increase in the future due to depletion in ground water levels + productivity peak being reached.

also, who knows - in an election, and drought affected, year the single desk may just stay put.

to me, it looks like a perfect storm of opportunity for the company.

having said that, i expect the price to drift, perhaps till May, when we should have a better view of new season production and AWB's order book. intend to make the best use of the buying opportunities till then :)

hope this helps!