@VYRDid I use the word powerful? Maybe, can't remember using...

@VYR


Did I use the word powerful? Maybe, can't remember using that word. I think I might have said they are a tool to understand market movement in particular to try identify where market movers (BEOT - big end of town) are playing. Regardless.

What I did not (attempt to) say in that tweet or any other message re copper price are the exact movements in the price. Have a look at the full copper chart I posted this morning a few messages back. You'll see the key points I have been working with at (look for the FIB retracement with blue prices and lines shown) 3.8965, 4.21, 4.549 4.9155 etc. A very quick read about Fibonacci sequences (in trading) will clarify somewhat. IMHO, these prices are the result of identifying where BEOT are driving the prices.

If you assume that markets are fair and no one can control or manipulate movements then this theory fails. However, there are forces that are capable of manipulating market movements and they do. An example as per News dot com dot au is China recent buying up gold and stockpiling critical minerals as a shield for/to US control - once they stop buying, what will happen to gold price? You can apply this statement to almost any critical mineral atm. To support this, do you think retail traders/investors are generally capable of buying $1M daily in any company? Generally no, it's probably the BEOT.

Back specifically to copper price movement using the above chart. Those retracement levels I mentioned above, have a look at the charts and see what the price action around those levels are. At each, copper price has a bit of a breather and decides where it's going. Typically prices could bounce between upper and lower levels until there is strength in that movement regardless of direction (up/down). Where there's strength, the price will continue until the majority of buyers or those with enough money stop buying or selling. Look to LTR for an example of what happens when a major buyer stops Sep 2023 from memory. The blue lines are key FIB levels, there are levels between them that I generally glance at but choose to focus on the key levels. Keep in mind that these levels have not needed any update since the move was identified which was before that tweet was published.

Those key levels also give an idea of possibility, taken with other information can provide an idea of probability but as you stated, the market is fickle. As a trader, you have to have some idea where you think an instruments price is going otherwise, why buy?

Are charts powerful? I don't think so, because charts alone cannot tell you the story in advance but they can be used to determine buying/selling pressure which shows through volume and price movement. Are good fundamentals alone powerful - same answer, no, because if no one is buying then price stagnates or falls. You must consider both - this is my opinion. As my definition of success goes, I am not successful (mainly due FOMO but I'm learning ) but trading has been my only income for the last 4 years which as enabled me to support a family and be debt free - actually I owe the tax man ATM but that's a different story.

Am I right in my assumptions? Only time will tell, keep an eye on the price levels I mentioned and you judge. Also consider when the tweet was published and what information was available and then convince me it was inaccurate.

Always IMHO only. Loving the conversation, thanks