@VYR you shouldn't read this post, see points 1 and 2 of your previous post for your guidance:
(1) the SP will continue to go up until it starts to go down
(2) it will continue to go down until it starts to go up.
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my current HGO chart, as usual some of my pretty lines omitted for simplicity.
The daily chart showed a bullish indicator between 24/7 and 15/8 by MACD:RSI divergence. During this time, the SP double bottomed on the 5.4 trend (red). This trend is what guided my opinion that our SP would test lower as mentioned a month or so back.
Consolidation appears current at this level but there are hints that lower prices may come failing some news or external factors. This low could be 5.0/4.9c due FVG hangover from circa 12 months ago. This is supported by possibility of stop losses from buyers during Oct/Nov 2023 and that RSI is indicating overbought. The alternative to these lows is the SP lingers at current levels until that overbought signal is wiped - some consolidation.
The upside currently is that macro events are pointing to various positives including China stimulus and reduced global stock levels. If the SP hits and bounces up from the lower trend at 5.4 (tripple bottom) then 7.5/7.8 will become the POI very quickly. RSI is the one to watch and currently indicates consolidation needed and further falls before any new moves, however, a bullish divergence is present. Nov 23 to Jan 24 showed that the RSI can stay high for extended periods and the SP rise- see second chart.
Extended RSI overbought Oct 2023 which also occurred after a bullish divergence:
Bullish divergence also supporting probable upswing in copper futures
HGO just needs to keep ticking boxes, everything else needed appears present to support a rise in SP.
Summary: Overbought indication present. 4.9 or 5.0 possible. Bullish divergence on futures and HGO charts present. Consolidation, re-test and strong bounce likely. Next POI 7.5/7.8
GLTA even the non believers. Sentiment changed to buy.
