I believe we're close to a bottom on BTA and the recent public...

I believe we're close to a bottom on BTA and the recent public capitulations on this forum are indicative of that. I call it the ICSIA portfolio management system, I Cant Stand It Anymore.

However, we are not in the same position as we were in during the highs.
- Biota failed to capitalise on the pandemic.
- They used precious capital to buy companies both outside their area of expertise and on the other side of the world.
- They must now fund those companies' continuing research.
- They have not delivered on a LANI deal.
- They have not delivered on a HRV deal.
- We've had a disastrous quarterly royalty, which must make even the blindest of Biota follow realise that future cash flows have a possibility of being lower than GSK production suggested they would be.

For balance here is what they have done right.
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Random Thoughts
Is Biota worth more? I strongly believe so.
If I was GSK and wanted to buy Biota to save myself future royalty payments and to get hold of LANI I would.
1. Ensure a bad quarterly royalty or two.
2. Dangle a carrot in front of Biota for LANI and HRV to waste Biota's time from pursuing other deals.

Biota's future cash flows are worth considerably more to GSK than Biota holders as GSK get those cash flows with only a fraction of the outflows.

That begs the question as to why GSK haven't made an offer for Biota. If it's worth more to them than us and they're not prepared to pay say a 50% premium to the current price then is Biota cheap?

I've been following biotech for almost 15 years now and one maxim I've come to believe is the length of time it takes to consummate a deal is inversely proportional to the value of the deal to shareholders. i.e. Everyday the potential value of a HRV and LANI deal falls.