Hi Bedo.Yes, things are going to take a while longer yet. Noble...

Hi Bedo.

Yes, things are going to take a while longer yet. Noble would've found any easy money by now. And, until the Mongolian Foreign Investment Legislation's regulations are formalised (and tested by someone) you can't expect a foreign investor to formally commit to such a large investment. So, even if there's a Russian coal exporter waiting in the wings, he's likely to stay hidden for a while yet. And he'll want to see the up-coming new, improved PFS, with its lower rail investment and running costs and maybe some extra coal from Hurimt.

I don't expect any problems with approval for a non-Chinese JV. The new environmental regulations look OK and the rail link will really open up the northern economy, including the government's high priority - tourism. And, if we're with a Russian outfit, we'll get no obstacles to using their railway to get to the coast.

IMO, even the company's worst case (selling the asset) should bring in considerably more than the current MC. And, for shareholders, maybe that's the best case. ATM, the SP says that the mine will never happen (has no present value) and that the coal-in-the-ground is worth about $31 mil ($50 mil MC less about $19 mil net cash). Can you see the major shareholders selling 180+ mil tons of the best quality coking coal for less than, say, $250 - 350 mil (albeit its location)? And, if Noble packaged that up with the coking coal from its XAM JV, it makes a very attractive proposition.

I doubt that the current sellers think the stock is over-valued. It just comes down to time, waiting till either the JV partner and funds are found or the asset is sold. We've been bogged down by the Mongolian elections and the resulting OT and SGQ nonsense, meaning it could be 1st qtr 2013 before we'll have things the way we want.

Either way, remember ... we're rewarded for risk and patience. AKM has supplied the former, we have to provide the latter.