Crikey - hold the excitement why don't we! The graphs tell the...

Crikey - hold the excitement why don't we!

The graphs tell the story - inventories are not going to disappear for a while, but they are falling. Forge extrapolated a while back, and we agreed that at the time, we could be below 600,000 tonnes by the end of August or September. That is more likely to be end of year now. The articles generally tell the same story, even those recent ST pull back ones - the last para often clarifies the "correction" and that the LT trend is still valid.

Most of us recognise this is a LT investment - maybe some traders expect some things to happen faster. Me, I've grateful if IBG ticks up half a cent every week. Also agree "looming" shortage is more likely to be 2017. However, the train will gather momentum as we get closer to the shortage as displayed by previous charts. Still think IBG is playing catch up after the L1 Capital sell off - explained by the spurt while zinc price was correcting and appreciate we got lucky with the oversubscription.

So, I'm very excited as the train appears to be heading in the right direction, albeit with some stops along the way - don't know of any LT baggers where this didn't happen.

I'm still perplexed by the hidden stocks and wonder if anyone, maybe ainsleym, can throw some light on this area. How much of the rise in inventories lately would be zinc movements into LME warehouses vs traders selling their warehoused stock? Keep seeing these "cancelled warrants" and sense these are ex traders stocks - is that correct?

Overall am not concerned about the hidden stocks as expect they too will fall over time. The dynamics seem clear with zinc - increasing demand (including new/expanded uses - fertilisers, China increasing car quality) and supply hampered by mine depletions. We all know this, but don't think we feel totally convinced as we get these poorly worded articles on the hidden stocks, which leave you wondering whether zinc is truly heading the right way. I subscribe to Glencore, Nyrstar, China Nonferrous and the LME jocks who are unambiguous - zinc is in deficit now and heading towards a shortage.

Glad to be BIG on IBG