You all need to read the announcement of 5th November, which in part states-
"•The Icewine#1 exploration well is designed to better quantify risk so that a farm-out can be achieved in 2016 => potential to unlock several hundred million to over a billion dollars in value for investors
•Highly leveraged opportunity due to low market cap (~US$20m) and bottom of cycle entry point => many multiple returns on investment possible
Concepts
•Expected Monetary Value (EMV): (Probability of Commercial Success * Potential Value on Success) Less (Probability of Failure * Cost of Failure)
•Strongly positive EMV leads to internal recommendation at Big Oil Companies to invest (subject to ranking with other prospects/developments, funding and strategy) Assumptions
•Belief that oil price will increase at some point in future (US$80/bbl long term assumption)
•NPV per bbl = US$3-$5 (internal estimate, shale success case only at US$80/bbl)
•1 billion barrel recoverable shale prize (internal estimate, shale success case only)
•10 horizontal appraisal wells required to prove play @ US$35m each = US$350m (prior to any rebate)
Icewine #1 Value Unlock Equation
4 Icewine #1 Value Unlock Equation (cont) Analysis
•Prior to Icewine#1 drilling, certain risks are hard to quantify => high uncertainty
•Large Cos typically will not invest at this stage
•Small increase in POCS => large increase in EMV due to large resource potential Conclusions
•POCS at 20-40% delivers an EMV for Project Icewine of US$320m to US$1.8b vs current market cap of US$20m
•Due to the size of the prize, a relatively small POCS would generate significant farm-in interest
•If risk can be mitigated to >=30% POCS then farm-out terms and competition will be strong – even at current oil prices
•Further upside possible from conventional potential"
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- High Graded
You all need to read the announcement of 5th November, which in...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 17 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add 88E (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
0.2¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $57.86M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.2¢ | 0.3¢ | 0.2¢ | $14.76K | 7.304M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
15 | 62493465 | 0.2¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.3¢ | 679387644 | 232 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
15 | 62493465 | 0.002 |
403 | 1231641997 | 0.001 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.003 | 659387644 | 231 |
0.004 | 220284788 | 105 |
0.005 | 82065362 | 49 |
0.006 | 35828234 | 36 |
0.007 | 39816299 | 22 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 10/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
88E (ASX) Chart |