Just some IF's here playing around with some figures IF trident is a gusher.
First if it turns to dog pooh, well doesn't matter how you wrap it, we will all still be holding dog pooh ....I think we all agree there....zero or hero.
Just based on what I have seen in recent years, subject to a decent find, then we are looking at a takeover between $1 to 1.5 billion dollars. 250m shares on issue gives $4 to $6.
Well Modelling has been done on this by NSAI and galp and TPT, so there are plenty of indicative figures to play with, with some accuracy. I was told 3Dseismics come up as clear as a bell for trident. So if well data confirms with their model as to thickness and depths etc 423m barrels will be very conservative estimates indeed, in fact you could probably double that easily.
Takeovers; Hardman resources and Cove energy are two that come to mind after big finds. Hardman took about 3 years after find and Cove Energy taken over a month after their find in East Africa to put themselves on the market. Both swallowed up. Takeovers are in flavour at the moment with several big companies cashed up and looking for good stuff. Genel, Chevron, Shell, all on the hunt for projects in stable countries.
According to RF Ambrian, Trident worth $3.31 a share at find and more when worked up...that's based on 423m Barrels as the median. (personally its going to be higher if its a gusher). Any find will here should increase value La Dam as well.
Working off mean of 423m barrels, so 106m barrels TPT at around $10 a barrel, (taking into consideration morocco favourable fiscal regime) still comes out at $1b still equals $4. WITHOUT taking into consideration other prospects on the block, to which I believe Zeus and little Zeus are very good prospects from 2d they currently have.
On another note, it usually takes a run up of about 3 to 4 months to hit a top on a good run. Look on a monthly chart of any share that's had a good run up. oil, resources and others.
Depending, of course on news released, I certainly won't be selling early here, maybe a few to get back capital, depends upon chart action., but I will be looking to hang on most for a takeover for any decent discovery. That's my anticipated exit strategy, and has been all along for this share. In the early days exited way too many early, but these days happy to let profits run.
TPT Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
