Hi Lazarus. With each annmnt we see yet another advance, and...

First 10 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Generalrelativity

13,575 Posts.

567

30/03/16

21:38

Post #: 17386052
Share

Originally posted by Lazarus65 ↑

Yes momaka...the prognosis is positive indeed. But I fear that there are too many 'investors' in this stock who are actually FIFO gamblers who don't really know what they are buying and how to interpret the news. As such they are ripe for the manipulation you refer to.

The announcement of today and the forthcoming IRR are case in point. Yes we had a very positive announcement today with good implications for potential flow rates and decline rates. And the IRR will combine all the data from ICE#1 with available data from previous wells and studies and make assumptions about the applicability across the broader acreage. It is unlikely that they won't come up with a very impressive number....which IMO is anything above 1 billion barrels recoverable. Nothing to be gained by expecting a bigger number at this stage. If it is then so much the better, but if not it is still excellent news. I hope that enough people 'holding' realise this, but I fear not.

However, whatever number they come up with it is just a number for 'Prospective Resources'. Prospective resources have a nominal value per bbl applied to them, but that nominal value is not the end game for this company so it should matter very little. Again, I bet most FIFO gamblers don't get this.

What does matter is the conversion of that 'Prospective Resource' to 'Contingent Resource' by 88e and most likely some partner/s through ongoing appraisal work - ICE#2H and at least a further 4 wells. Then we will know whether what appears to be an almost certain success in geological terms will also likely be be a commercial success. If still positive at that stage, then our resource position will get a genuine and positive re-rating in terms of value. But that means being patient for another 12-15 months minimum before ICE#2H results start 'talking'. We know the FIFO gamblers won't be up for that unless there are other announcement flows to be speculated on. Will there be enough other news flow to keep enough volatility for the day traders to exploit?

How far the company takes it down the appraisal road before T/O, or whether they go beyond (again with partners) into production and the further massive re-rating of resources into 'Proven Reserves" with P10, P50 and P90 ratings is a discussion for a later time. A much, much later time.

However, it seems that every announcement is being anticipated and then assessed in terms of Proven Resources.

Oh well.

Expand

Hi Lazarus.

With each annmnt we see yet another advance, and with each advance with see another kick in the sp, and with each kick in the sp we see more shares go into stronger HOLDING hands.

Dave is playing this pretty well imo and the recent bracketting is a pretty strong sign of accumulation FOR WHATEVER REASON. This we cant tell.

All we know is whats happening and from what I can see we are setting up one of the biggest mother pennants of all time

d.

88E Price at posting: 6.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

SNG

Siren Gold boosts antimony resource by 66% to 14.5Kt at Auld Creek, NZ

PTR

Petratherm adds $1.6 to the piggybank ahead of SA titanium drilling program

WMG

Western Mines identifies 2 high-grade zones at Mulga Tank in WA

WR1

Winsome scoping study proposes low-cost operation for Adina lithium project

ALR

Altair Minerals hits high-grade copper and gold at Wee MacGregor, QLD