Its clear that we have a large enough resource to sustain a...

Its clear that we have a large enough resource to sustain a massive production profile but how much? Personally I think that production MAY be limited by external infrastructure constraints.

I note that ridley terminal is planning to double capacity to 24mtpa. If CPL secure that expansion then thats 12mtpa that we can export. Assuming 1mtpa production for domestic use that brings total production capacity to 13mtpa.

Im not sure how much excess capacity the rail has. To fill a 250kt capesize vessel we would need almost 17 train loads (150 cars @ 100t each). If we were to export 12mtpa that would require almost a capesize vessel every week = 17 train loads every week = 2.4 train loads every day.

As you can see the logistics are huge but so is the reward.

As such my guess is that production will come in at somewhere between 10mtpa and 13mtpa, which is simply huge by anyones standard.

I'll leave you with a figure quoted from the technical report available on the CPL website. "Figure 28.2 NPV Sensitivity Analysis" This matrix shows that with a 30% increase in asusmed coal prices (base case price is $95/t in 2014)the NPV of the project more than doubles from $1.546bn to $3.011 bn!

Illustrates nicely how leveraged we are to the rising coal price.

All IMHO only.

Good luck to holders.