AJ, I believe you are just starting to see the POG poke through...

AJ, I believe you are just starting to see the POG poke through resistance on the weekly chart as well now. Need confirmation with higher prices as its only marginal for now but the daily shows a clearer break out after last nights close.

Might be a volatile week on the back of falling US markets but our ASX, especially the bank sector, has been correcting for months and the gold sector is breaking out to the upside.

The GDXJ is an ETF made up of what we consider mid cap gold producers which are very volatile. Day to day fluctuations on this can be all over the place as we saw with our gold stocks on Friday. It is more prone to daily sentiments of fear and greed. GDXJ was down around 2.2% last night on the back of weak US markets. GDX is a similar ETF but with larger gold producers. It closed near even (down 0.2%).
The HUI is made up of non hedged larger market cap producers. These have full exposure to the POG through their unhedged production. The HUI started higher, then followed the DOW lower for 2 hours during the morning (down 2.7% on its low) but then climbed all afternoon to close even despite US stocks falling all day to close on their lows. That resulted in the HUI holding its ground in positive break out territory. Other than daily volatility the mid caps in the GDXJ will most likely follow the HUI’s lead.

Longer term the HUI appears as though it may have already put in a bottom. It had a steep down channel from 2012 that it broke out of in mid 2013. It then formed a wedge which lasted around 5 months and that too is now being broken to the upside.
This should be marking the end to its longer term down trend which began just over 2 years ago in 2011.
POG is so far confirming its marginal break out on Thursday with a higher close last night. It is looking stronger.
The gold stocks probably were held back last night on weakness in the general market. Margin calls from a lower broad market sell-off may have been a factor.
I can see 5-8% downside for US stocks to longer term support, but the HUI is looking ready to continue higher after its positive breakout. Next week might be an eventful week.