We all know that Amadeus is a very profitable producer explorer spinning off bucket loads of cash which it ploughs straight back into growing the business via an aggressive wildcat and development drilling campaign.
We also agree (most of us) that at current price range AMU looks sorely undervalued. Even the bulk of oil and gas analysts agree that Amadeus should be valued at a minimum of $1.
Amadeus has low lifting costs and prices for oil and gas are at record highs.
On the subject of analysts. Oil and gas analysts have consistently and in some cases significantly underpriced future oil and gas prices for the last several years. Therefore the underlying assumptions (valuations) attributed to both O &g companies and O &G assets are consistently ultra conservative. Its a widely known fact that analysts are a bit like sheep, they go with the heard for fear of sticking their neck out and making a big call.
Oil is now close to US$120 barrel and gas is north of $10. Apart from some hot money and a geopolitical premium this is all underpinned by basic supply and demand fundamentals. These fundamentals are not transient or seasonal, they are here to stay. There is a mountain of literature on these issues as well as Peak Oil Theory and now mainstream academics are even forecasting energy resource wars.
There are no monster fields left to be discovered. OPEC hasn't a snowflakes chance in hell of keeping up with global demand. High energy prices are here to stay.
As a highly profitable, low cost producer with an aggressive drill campaign Amadeus seems like a no brainer at these prices. With the markets starting to focus on energy stocks surely Amadeus is a standout bargain. A re-rate must be inevitable, imho
anythoughts ?
AMU Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held