AJX (ASX) Hindsight

Originally posted by dej ↑

If that was the case, then 13 million shares would have been sold since the placement.

Looking back on previous volume, after the CR they would have immediately sold the portion they wanted to sell e.g. 8 million shares. No way they would have snap decided 2 weeks or 3 weeks after the placement that they no longer wanted the shares. The people who were involved in the placement would have pre-calculated it was better for their risk tolerance to sell the shares immediately and keep the warrants for the upside benefit. Its an easy way to take a paper loss at the end of a financial year to off-set both tax and also off-set some potential income for the coming year. To be frank, if I was in their shoes I would be doing the same thing.

The first week after the placement we saw approximate volume of around 10M shares, when normally we would be looking at around 4M, and this also was around the time when the algo trading started kicking in. This was also the start of the major decline. They have been using a algo trading to slowly sell of shares over time for the best price possible. I would say they would have sold out the portion they wanted to sell approximately mid-second week after the placement, say around the 12th - 13th.

Lets say they sold half.

What is happening now is more retail investors being spooked and traders hoping on the band wagon. Traders are awesome, I love them. I have traded myself many a times, oh how AZK was a good way to double my yearly income in a week. Regardless, retailers sell are being spooked by the lowering price off the back of fundamentally good announcements (that the CR placement receiver made occur as they will ignore and sell given that was their objective) thinking that their is something they don't know and cause panic. And what do traders love more than panic? NOTHING. When people trade under normal circumstance they trade rationally to their own circumstance, which to the observer seems irrational. When panic sets in, it is when a lot of these trading charts are formed. We all act like cattle, plain and simple. Traders can see this irrational (but predictable to the observer) behaviour and pounce. We now are in the trading sphere.

I would also hazard to guess that now that the traders are involved, and we have seen further decline in the share price as all the spooked retailers are crying, that the CR placement receiver is probably selling the remainder of their shares. That could be millions of shares.

Those are just my thoughts. I usually don't talk much about who I am and what I do, but I have a background in quantitative finance and financial coding. To me, this is a combination of a few things, but essentially panic that traders love, and are profiting from.

Expand

Originally posted by dej ↑

Agreed with both your points. Was just trying to display a possible scenario and its feasibility.

I think this was a joke. If not, why is his sentiment buy and held.

As I have encountered many times before on this thread, its hard to tell sarcasm through text.

I think your on to something...

I think you could be expecting to much of the ASX. They are forward looking.... if your a reverse-take-over-mining-shell-but-now-tech (RTOMSBNT) stock. Some of those stocks have so much future priced in they are approaching the size of AJX.

Which has revenue.

And a customer base.

And a tangible product.

Maybe we should reverse take-over a mining shell company to get some interest?

Expand

Well, I think the seller/sellers has/have left the building.

Time for all the people who had their stops triggered to buy back in.

I expect a steady accent back to at least CR levels over the coming while on small 'retailer' volume.

I think for many this has been an example of how involved emotionally they are in their investment. Maybe it is time to reevaluate if you got to involved over the past couple weeks.

Lets start looking forward, shall we?

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	1576481	1.1¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1576481

1.1¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.2¢	48785	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

1.2¢

48785

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	1576481	0.011
4	4700099	0.010
3	271222	0.009
2	182600	0.008
2	485714	0.007

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1576481

0.011

4700099

0.010

271222

0.009

182600

0.008

485714

0.007

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.012	48785	1
0.013	170837	5
0.014	134311	1
0.015	1540046	6
0.016	35000	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.012

48785

0.013

170837

0.014

134311

0.015

1540046

0.016

35000

(20min delay)
Last 1.2¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $18.69M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.2¢	1.2¢	1.1¢	$7.899K	658.8K


Last 1.2¢		Change 0.000 ( 0.00 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
1.2¢	1.2¢	1.2¢	7520
Last updated 10.52am 14/05/2024 ?

Hindsight, page-233

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