From the SMH: "Somebody will usually say 'well terrorism changes...

From the SMH:

"Somebody will usually say 'well terrorism changes everything and if there is an attack everyone will vote for Le Pen'," says Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent. "But if you go back to the Paris attacks and you look at the polling before and after the two big Paris attacks, Le Pen did not receive a boost after those attacks.

"In the same way, in other Western democracies when there's been a serious terrorist attack, populists in general have not benefited and I think that's an important point."

Indeed, looking back to the Nice attack in mid-July 2016, just before the attack Le Pen was polling 28 per cent. The next poll, in early September, shows her vote unchanged - if anything slightly lower.

Oh well, I guess we'll find out soon!