Historic Gold, page-7

In regards your 2nd point Timber I think that is pretty much correct in the last 20 years or so & was highlighted by Western Central bank sales. However I suspect that is going to change with China's growing economic global influence.

Many gold bears on here have written off China as a major threat to the US in regards economic & military power. In my opinion this is a Jurassic view of the direction the world is heading. Sure China has a long way to go in particular in the area of military technology to compete with the US however I don't think it will be long before that view changes as well. They are already the 2nd largest economy in the world & with the current rates of growth will supersede the US in 10-15 years.

There has never been a dominant economic empire in history that has not also been dominant militarily. The US broke the USSR by out spending them on their military capability.
Who do you think is in a better position to spend more on military might?
The one who has the debt or the one that owns a reasonable chunk of that debt?

And anecdotally, who is buying & producing as much gold as they can lay their hands on?
Gold will regain its significance as a reserve asset in the coming ten years imo.

One current indicator of the potential of China is look at the IPO of Facebook vs Alibaba.
Hardly an area that you would consider a strength of China only five years ago, yet Alibaba will dwarf Facebook. Also after FB launched the share price plummeted, will Alibaba do the same or will the market value it even higher than its IPO?