Skol - Why you fixate on a two - three year period of golds history and infer that is has some relevance to today, is beyond me and totally irrelevant to the long term. Would you look back at the fundementals of BHP back in 1980 and use that to predict todays value ? Of course you wouldn't , as things have changed and markets are dynamic.
So ,just like a three year snapshot of a companies chart is largely irrelevant in its full life cycle it is irrelavent to gold also. These peaks and troughs are normal , as the market is dynamic and pundits always overshoot their expectations too far to the upside and downside.
You could look at the charts of any number of companies and find a huge peak, followed by a huge trough, followed by a gradual increase to true or fair value, ultimately higher than the orginal peak. Same for many commods also , oil, copper, grain , hogs....
Gold's fair value is ultimately and logically higher than its historical peak also, when one takes into account supply vs demand/cost of extraction/discovery rates/ population increases/ declining grade profiles etc etc... many forget just how rare ecomomical concentrations of gold in the earths crust actually are and the supply side of the curve will favour higher prices for many more decades to come. Its either higher prices for gold , or gold mines will start shutting down as average grades and new discoveries are on the slide....so then supply dwindles , prices rise by default anyway, and the lower grade stuff becomes profitable again.....rinse and repeat.
By your logic , BHP must now be a bubble , based only on the fact that it once peaked over 10 years ago, fell off a cliff and halved in value , and has rallied strongly ever since past that peak and beyond.
The fundementals driving BHP kept improving , just like the fundemetals for gold keep improving. Hence you get a nice looking chart, but no bubble I'm affraid , not until fundementals reverse sharply (but even then , inflation is likely to be in full swing and gold will do what?...)
Maybe you should post everyday like a broken watch in the BHP threads ? calling for a bubble there? the way they pay their directors , maybe it is a bubble...
