"Cheers CK"I sincerely hope you make some money out of AMC, but...

"Cheers CK"

I sincerely hope you make some money out of AMC, but .....

.... you have to look at the performance of the past 15 years and you will quickly conclude that they are going nowhere. A pedestrian 10% ROE.

It can be tempting to believe that its a good asset waiting for some good managers, and mismanagement at times has been an issue here, but if that was the only problem, it would have been fixed by now.

The real problem is that the packaging business is a low margin and competitive commodity business. As Buffett would say, have you ever heard anyone say 'I will only drink Coke if it comes in an Amcor can?'

There is only so much a manufacturer such as Coke can charge for its products, and the first port of call if they are under pressure, is to reduce packaging costs. Make the cartons lighter, reduce the tin-plate gauge and so on.

If you invest capital to improve your efficiency, your competitor is sure to follow suit and buy bigger and faster machines and the whole vicious cycle starts all over again.

(sometimes you try and get smart and talk to your competitors about getting some cartel-like colusion going ... but thats another story).

Anyway, thats my view on Amcor, nothing personal, and I hope it goes to $100 for you