I tend to agree, albeit extra details are always welcomed (although a pain and time-wasting for management). Given management has forecast ~$60m in revenue for HLF (ex-THM) for FY22 (year ending 31st March 2022), it is rational to believe that H2 FY22 will be bigger than H1 FY22. The NZ (and AUS) business is thus growing. All of the numbers below, in the charts, are ex-THM... we are also about to have a $25m jump in the top line (and $5m+ jump at the bottom line) with The Healthy Mummy now integrated with HLF. That should take the business to around $85m+ revenue for FY23 and $6.5m+ group EBITDA. All for a market cap of just $26m, a price to sales multiple of 0.3x (MC/rev) and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6x (EV/EBITDA).
As long as
earnings per share grows/improves across the next couple of years, and the debt profile is paid down, I think the share price will take care of itself. That
should be the case as long as top-line growth remains steady AND margins hold. There are execution risks, key-person risks, macro risks, supplier risks and competitive risks. Let's see where they get to 12 months from now.
