From a technical standpoint there is divergence happening on monthly, weekly and daily timeframes. Volume has become very high In the last 6 weeks over 11 million shares have been traded not including earlier months where QAN actually started the selloff. I'm extremely bullish on this over the next month or two and I think we will see a boom starting next week. My estimate is that we will see a bounce to $1.5-1.6 with the latter corresponding to a Fib retracement level of 0.5.
Airline demand is booming and large cruise ships are at FULL CAPACITY. While different companies Delta is expecting earnings to double in 2023 alone -
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/delta-2023-earnings-forecast-sees-robust-travel-demand.html.
My rationale is that people have been spooked by the QAN selloff as well as the broad market decline thanks to the US rate hikes which have finally started to slow. Remember Australian businesses don't just operate in the US, they are affected by our local economy, which at this point in time is much more robust and bullish then the USA as evident by our much smaller interest rate hikes. I wouldn't be surprised in the next RBA meeting just holds interest rates steady and our market will react very positively if this does happen.
Couple this with a company that has no short or long term debt, pays a healthy dividend and is at a decade low price (~2004) and you have a strong share for the future. People forget that all the major travel agencies defeated the onslaught of COVID and while it may take time to recover, they will be stronger and more competitive as a result.
Whether you are in for the long or short term I think the price is exceptional at this pricepoint ~ $1.40.
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