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26/03/20
10:27
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Originally posted by StefanF:
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You continue to get your numbers mixed up. It's not 10% "that's all it takes", it would have been the cumulative 35%+ that would have incorporated a lot of the macro stats that you are talking about. The market would have been looking at social isolation, economic activity losses and unemployment spikes even when there were only 100 cases. At the very least, the market would have factored in some probability of this happening. Either way I feel you're over complicating this. You don't need to worry about at what stage has the market dropped how much, you should just be concerned about the total drop of the market from peak to trough and make a judgement call on whether there is value or not. I sold out of the market late Feb/early March (luckily) because I thought given the circumstances the market was overvalued. After weeks of absolute carnage I've started seeing value again about this time last week and have been buying into the market since. So far so good.
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yeah maybe I'm being too conservative. When everyone is talking about 35% drop in total, I see what factors caused that drop fractionally. Seems like market is having another green day with its eyes covered. Would love to see it fall over so I can pick up some lows again