stocko re: hold or sell
stocko this is a pdf grab (sorry about the format) of the Aegis consensus rept for 200503
20 May 2003 Centennial Coal Company Limited (CEY) $2.32 Sector: Materials Industry Group: Materials Industry: Metals & Mining Sub Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining Important ASX Announcements Peer Comparison We do not offer any recommendation on this stock. Company Overview Centennial Coal Company Limited (CEY) is an Australian thermal and coking coal producer, with annual coal production of 13 million tonnes. CEY has 13 operating mines in the Western, Central Coast, Southern NSW Coalfields and in Central Queensland. With 80% of coal produced sold to domestic power stations, the remainder is exported principally to Asia. Differentiating Factor CEY is the largest of the emerging 'pure' coal producers listed on the ASX with coal sourced totally from Australia. It provides a utility type investment vehicle in that the majority of its revenues are linked to A$ long- tem contracts with domestic electricity generators. It has dominance of supply in the key western and Central Coast districts of NSW. Earnings Summary 1NPAT is adjusted by removing non-recurring items and goodwill. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings. Yr to Jun NPAT Rep $M NPAT1 Adj $M EPSc EPS chg% PERx PER rel All Ords x PER rel Sectorx DPS c Yield % Franking % ROE % 2000A 3 3 0.0 n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a 2001A 10 10 22.7 n/a 10.2 0.6 1.2 7.0 3.0 0.0 19.3 2002A 29 29 33.0 45.2 7.0 0.4 0.4 16.0 6.9 0.0 27.5 Date Title 02-May-03 Third Quarter Activities Report 30-Apr-03 Third Quarter Activities Report 03-Mar-03 Half Yearly Report 03-Mar-03 Half Yearly Report 27-Feb-03 Half Yearly Report 04-Feb-03 Second Quarter Activities Report 04-Feb-03 Second Quarter Activities Report 31-Jan-03 Second Quarter Activities Report 28-Oct-02 First Quarter Activities Report 28-Oct-02 First Quarter Activities Report P/E(x) Dividend Yield (%) Price Company Code 02A 03F 02A 03F $ BHP Billiton Limited BHP 13.3 15.7 3.0 3.0 8.41 Rio Tinto RIO 14.9 14.1 3.6 3.4 30.10 Alumina Ltd AWC 20.7 18.5 3.1 5.1 4.15 WMC Resources WMR (85.4) 20.5 0.0 1.2 3.75 Centennial Coal CEY 7.1 8.1 6.9 4.3 2.33 Key Information Directors Dr Kenneth J Moss, John S Roth, Malcolm B Clyde, Robert G Cameron, Robert H Duffin, Dr P. Moy Market Cap ($M): 372 Shares (M): 157 % of Market: 0.05 12 Month H/L: $1.58 - $2.45 Price as at: 20-May-03 10:34 Last Update: 20-May-03 Price Performance & Target
1 Year (%) 2 Years (%) 3 Years (%) CEY 18 110 409 Sector (13) 1 26 Market (13) (11) (5) Consensus Recommendations 0 1 1 1 2 Sell Under Perf. Hold Buy Strong Buy FY03 FY04 Consensus EPS (c) 26.4 28.7 EPS Growth (%) 9.0 P/E Ratio (x) 8.8 8.1 P/E Rel. All Ords (x) 0.54 0.57 P/E Rel. Sector (x) 0.58 0.61 Number of Brokers in Earnings Survey: 5 Independent Equities Research Centennial Coal Company Limited Year end Jun. All figures in A$M Profit & loss summary 2000A 2001A 2002A Operating revenue 5 103 142 Invest & other income 0 0 0 EBITDA 3 24 44 Depreciation/Amort 0 (9) (12) EBIT 3 15 32 Net Interest 0 (5) (2) Pre-tax profit 3 10 29 Tax expense 0 0 0 Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0 0 0 NPAT 3 10 29 Non recurring items 0 0 0 Reported profit 3 10 29 NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0 0 0 Adjusted profit 3 10 29 Cashflow summary 2000A 2001A 2002A EBITDA 3 24 44 Working capital changes 0 (14) (8) Interest and tax 0 (4) (2) Other operating items 0 12 9 Operating cashflow 3 18 42 Required capex 0 (6) (11) Maintainable cashflow 3 12 32 Dividends 0 (2) (7) Acq/Disp 0 (56) 0 Other investing items 0 (7) 1 Free cashflow 3 (52) 25 Equity 0 43 2 Debt inc/(red'n) 0 14 (28) Balance sheet 2000A 2001A 2002A Cash & deposits 0 8 8 Inventories 0 8 12 Trade debtors 0 10 16 Other curr assets 0 12 13 Total current assets 0 39 48 Prop., plant & equip. 0 71 70 Non-curr intangibles 0 0 0 Non-curr investments 0 1 1 Other non-curr assets 0 51 55 Total assets 0 162 174 Trade creditors 0 9 12 Curr borrowings 0 5 1 Other curr liabilities 0 12 24 Total current liab. 0 26 37 Borrowings 0 36 12 Other non-curr liabilities 0 4 9 Total liabilities 0 66 58 Minorities/Convertibles 0 0 0 Shareholders equity 0 95 116 Calendar of Events Ratio analysis 2000A 2001A 2002A Sales growth (%) 0.0 1849.1 37.5 EBITDA growth (%) n/a 804.5 86.6 EPS growth (%) n/a n/a 45.2 EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 49.1 22.8 30.9 EBIT/Sales margin (%) 49.1 14.3 22.3 Tax rate (%) 0.0 3.0 0.7 Net debt/equity (%) 0.0 37.9 8.2 Net debt/net debt + equity (%) 0.0 27.5 7.6 Net interest cover (x) n/a 3.1 12.7 Payout ratio (%) 0.0 30.8 48.6 Capex to deprec'n (%) 0.0 62.8 88.3 NTA per share ($) 0.00 1.11 1.26 ROA (%) 0.0 12.6 19.0 ROE (%) n/a 19.3 27.5 Multiple analysis 2000A 2001A 2002A Market cap ($M) 372 Net debt ($M) 278 Peripheral assets ($M) (182) Enterprise value ($M) 469 EV/EBIT (x) 180.2 31.8 14.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 180.2 19.9 10.7 EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 11.6 10.8 10.2 EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 15.6 1.8 1.0 P/E (x) 0.0 10.2 7.0 P/E rel All Ind (x) 0.0 0.4 0.3 P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 0.0 0.4 0.4 P/E sector (x) 12.6 8.7 16.7 P/E rel sector (x) 0.0 1.2 0.4 Date Event 03-Apr-03 Dividend Date Payable for Half Yearly Result (5.0c 0% franked) 20-Mar-03 Dividend Record Date for Half Yearly Result (5.0c 0% franked) 14-Mar-03 Dividend Ex-Dividend Date for Half Yearly Result (5.0c 0% franked) 08-Oct-02 Dividend Date Payable for Final Year Result (8.00c 0.00% franked) 08-Aug-02 Dividend Record Date for Final Year Result (8.00c 0.00% franked)
This is lastnights chart it is still in long mode though closed on red candle with long lower shadow? todays 230 on small vols would seem to be confirming a prevailing turn down and a close watch on the puff?
paste the url if interested http://www.geocities.com/mad_macs_au/CEY270503a.png
CEY Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
