stocko re: hold or sell stockothis is a pdf grab(sorry about the...

stocko re: hold or sell stocko
this is a pdf grab
(sorry about the format) of the Aegis consensus rept for 200503

20 May 2003
Centennial Coal Company Limited (CEY) $2.32
Sector: Materials Industry Group: Materials Industry: Metals & Mining Sub Industry: Diversified Metals
& Mining
Important ASX Announcements
Peer Comparison
We do not offer any recommendation on this stock.
Company Overview
Centennial Coal Company Limited (CEY) is an Australian thermal and coking
coal producer, with annual coal production of 13 million tonnes. CEY has 13
operating mines in the Western, Central Coast, Southern NSW Coalfields and
in Central Queensland. With 80% of coal produced sold to domestic power
stations, the remainder is exported principally to Asia.
Differentiating Factor
CEY is the largest of the emerging 'pure' coal producers listed on the ASX with
coal sourced totally from Australia. It provides a utility type investment vehicle
in that the majority of its revenues are linked to A$ long- tem contracts with
domestic electricity generators. It has dominance of supply in the key western
and Central Coast districts of NSW.
Earnings Summary
1NPAT is adjusted by removing non-recurring items and goodwill. All the above statistics are derived
from normalised earnings.
Yr to Jun NPAT
Rep $M
NPAT1
Adj $M
EPSc
EPS chg%
PERx
PER rel
All Ords
x
PER rel
Sectorx
DPS
c
Yield
%
Franking
%
ROE
%
2000A 3 3 0.0 n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a
2001A 10 10 22.7 n/a 10.2 0.6 1.2 7.0 3.0 0.0 19.3
2002A 29 29 33.0 45.2 7.0 0.4 0.4 16.0 6.9 0.0 27.5
Date Title
02-May-03 Third Quarter Activities Report
30-Apr-03 Third Quarter Activities Report
03-Mar-03 Half Yearly Report
03-Mar-03 Half Yearly Report
27-Feb-03 Half Yearly Report
04-Feb-03 Second Quarter Activities Report
04-Feb-03 Second Quarter Activities Report
31-Jan-03 Second Quarter Activities Report
28-Oct-02 First Quarter Activities Report
28-Oct-02 First Quarter Activities Report
P/E(x) Dividend
Yield (%) Price
Company Code 02A 03F 02A 03F $
BHP Billiton Limited BHP 13.3 15.7 3.0 3.0 8.41
Rio Tinto RIO 14.9 14.1 3.6 3.4 30.10
Alumina Ltd AWC 20.7 18.5 3.1 5.1 4.15
WMC Resources WMR (85.4) 20.5 0.0 1.2 3.75
Centennial Coal CEY 7.1 8.1 6.9 4.3 2.33
Key Information
Directors
Dr Kenneth J Moss, John S Roth, Malcolm
B Clyde, Robert G Cameron, Robert H
Duffin, Dr P. Moy
Market Cap ($M): 372
Shares (M): 157
% of Market: 0.05
12 Month H/L: $1.58 - $2.45
Price as at: 20-May-03 10:34
Last Update: 20-May-03
Price Performance & Target

1 Year
(%)
2 Years
(%)
3 Years
(%)
CEY 18 110 409
Sector (13) 1 26
Market (13) (11) (5)
Consensus Recommendations
0
1 1 1
2
Sell Under
Perf. Hold Buy Strong
Buy
FY03 FY04
Consensus EPS (c) 26.4 28.7
EPS Growth (%) 9.0
P/E Ratio (x) 8.8 8.1
P/E Rel. All Ords (x) 0.54 0.57
P/E Rel. Sector (x) 0.58 0.61
Number of Brokers in Earnings Survey: 5
Independent Equities Research
Centennial Coal Company Limited
Year end Jun. All figures in A$M
Profit & loss summary 2000A 2001A 2002A
Operating revenue 5 103 142
Invest & other income 0 0 0
EBITDA 3 24 44
Depreciation/Amort 0 (9) (12)
EBIT 3 15 32
Net Interest 0 (5) (2)
Pre-tax profit 3 10 29
Tax expense 0 0 0
Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0 0 0
NPAT 3 10 29
Non recurring items 0 0 0
Reported profit 3 10 29
NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0 0 0
Adjusted profit 3 10 29
Cashflow summary 2000A 2001A 2002A
EBITDA 3 24 44
Working capital changes 0 (14) (8)
Interest and tax 0 (4) (2)
Other operating items 0 12 9
Operating cashflow 3 18 42
Required capex 0 (6) (11)
Maintainable cashflow 3 12 32
Dividends 0 (2) (7)
Acq/Disp 0 (56) 0
Other investing items 0 (7) 1
Free cashflow 3 (52) 25
Equity 0 43 2
Debt inc/(red'n) 0 14 (28)
Balance sheet 2000A 2001A 2002A
Cash & deposits 0 8 8
Inventories 0 8 12
Trade debtors 0 10 16
Other curr assets 0 12 13
Total current assets 0 39 48
Prop., plant & equip. 0 71 70
Non-curr intangibles 0 0 0
Non-curr investments 0 1 1
Other non-curr assets 0 51 55
Total assets 0 162 174
Trade creditors 0 9 12
Curr borrowings 0 5 1
Other curr liabilities 0 12 24
Total current liab. 0 26 37
Borrowings 0 36 12
Other non-curr liabilities 0 4 9
Total liabilities 0 66 58
Minorities/Convertibles 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 0 95 116
Calendar of Events
Ratio analysis 2000A 2001A 2002A
Sales growth (%) 0.0 1849.1 37.5
EBITDA growth (%) n/a 804.5 86.6
EPS growth (%) n/a n/a 45.2
EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 49.1 22.8 30.9
EBIT/Sales margin (%) 49.1 14.3 22.3
Tax rate (%) 0.0 3.0 0.7
Net debt/equity (%) 0.0 37.9 8.2
Net debt/net debt + equity (%) 0.0 27.5 7.6
Net interest cover (x) n/a 3.1 12.7
Payout ratio (%) 0.0 30.8 48.6
Capex to deprec'n (%) 0.0 62.8 88.3
NTA per share ($) 0.00 1.11 1.26
ROA (%) 0.0 12.6 19.0
ROE (%) n/a 19.3 27.5
Multiple analysis 2000A 2001A 2002A
Market cap ($M) 372
Net debt ($M) 278
Peripheral assets ($M) (182)
Enterprise value ($M) 469
EV/EBIT (x) 180.2 31.8 14.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 180.2 19.9 10.7
EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 11.6 10.8 10.2
EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 15.6 1.8 1.0
P/E (x) 0.0 10.2 7.0
P/E rel All Ind (x) 0.0 0.4 0.3
P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 0.0 0.4 0.4
P/E sector (x) 12.6 8.7 16.7
P/E rel sector (x) 0.0 1.2 0.4
Date Event
03-Apr-03 Dividend Date Payable for Half Yearly Result
(5.0c 0% franked)
20-Mar-03 Dividend Record Date for Half Yearly Result
(5.0c 0% franked)
14-Mar-03 Dividend Ex-Dividend Date for Half Yearly
Result
(5.0c 0% franked)
08-Oct-02 Dividend Date Payable for Final Year Result
(8.00c 0.00% franked)
08-Aug-02 Dividend Record Date for Final Year Result
(8.00c 0.00% franked)

This is lastnights chart it is still in long mode
though closed on red candle with long lower shadow?
todays 230 on small vols would seem to be confirming a prevailing turn down and a close watch on the puff?

paste the url if interested
http://www.geocities.com/mad_macs_au/CEY270503a.png