Raffy looks like he trying to make it out that there is a fire...

Raffy looks like he trying to make it out that there is a fire sale. He has already convinced many shareholders to sell to him at 84cents. This means that he has increased his holding from about 50 to 85% in recent times. If he gets to 90% then he has the right to compulsory acquire your shares and that of the remaining shareholders.

This allows him to take the business private and pull it off the ASX. He is very desperate and a) wants you to sell direct to him at 84 cents and b) doesn't want you to sell to the highest bidder on the asx which is currently a little over 84cents that he is offering.

Even though the company has a lot of debt, recently they sold 50% of a small subsidiary for $160 Million. Raffy wants to value the whole company at about $280 Million up from about $220 Million when he offered 66 cents. Remember revenue is at about $2 billion

The company appears to be in a transition and in the last fews years has invested in a lot of factory's and processing plants with many still in testing phase and not have generated any money. Once these are turned on they will. I have driven past a few of these in Melbourne and the factories stand out they are so new and shinny.

In addition Governments, Businesses (Woollies, Aldi) etc are all on the same page and Pact are in a real position to capitalize on the new direction. It would appear that there has been a incentive over the last 12 months to down play the success of the company and perhaps writing off 50 million dollars of old plant and perhaps other things we are unable to confirm.

At this stage there are not many willing shareholders left to sell him shares at the 84cents but there is always a risk this can change. In the last 3 days I have been getting sms's daily around 3 to 4pm, i think they are now trowing everything at it. If he doesn't get to 90% then others her have taught me that he needs to buy the share on the market at a rate of 3% every six months. The price will again depend on what shareholders want to sell them for.

So if he doesn't gain any more traction he will own 85 percent of the company until he increases to at least 90% to take the company private. If the remaining share holders play it smart and don't sell him our shares then he has to put up his offer. We need to work as a team. However mostly our hands are tied with the decisions of the largest 5 or so shareholders. But I suspect if shareholders start selling their small parcels cheaply it may make it harder for the larger shareholders to negotiate.

Finally if you are not desperate to have the money in your pocket hold out for the longer term we are all hoping we can minimize our looses.