I agree with Borg81’s reply to you. RG’s mention of 85% is fear -mongering to imply that “85% of shares have already accepted so you ought to go with the crowd and accept the bid”. He can’t say that outright so he only implies it. RG had 50% at the start so it would be more accurate to say that out of the 50% he did not hold when the bid started, he has picked up 35% of the shares and 15% have not yet accepted. Per WT’s analysis, the number of shareholders (as distinct from shares) who have not yet sold or accepted appears to be considerably higher than 15/50, which probably reflects how sentiment lies.
There is no significance in 85%: the only important number is the 90% threshold which allows him to proceed to compulsory acquisition (CA). He has gone over the 75% threshold that is one of the pre-conditions needed to apply for delisting from ASX. However, as Williamteddy has shown, the other crucial condition for delisting (number of remaining shareholders) is a very long way short of being met. RG threatens delisting but today he is miles from being able to do that. In any case, as others have said, that is an inconvenience but not critical. The most important matter is whether he reaches 90%: if he does he says he will proceed to CA. Although he doesn’t explain this, there are two very good reasons for RG to want to use CA to get eventually to 100%. They are to get access to all the PGH cash flow, and reorganise PGH’s debt structure etc. the other is that it enables tax consolidation.
You don’t have to do anything now. Unless you are in a hurry to raise cash, it would be sensible to wait.The bid is unconditional so he can’t withdraw it: he must pay you 84c even if you wait till the last hour to accept. Nor can he increase it, or withdraw it. You can wait and see how events unfold over the next 4 weeks.
You have to form your own opinion whether the shares are worth more than 84 cents, and whether you would still hold that view even if there was (later) a short term fall in the market price. If you believe they are not, then you may as well sell on market now and get paid faster. If you believe they are worth more than 84c, as many posters here do, the choices become more complex. You have no downside risk whilst the bid remains live- so can afford to wait for (at least) 3 or 4 weeks- but there is a risk that he can keep extending the bid for several months, hoping to wear people out. If and when he eventually gets to the 90% level, the payment rule under CA is much longer (6 weeks or more).
RG can’t now raise the bid, even if he wanted to. He can’t buy any more shares on or off market for 6 months after the bid closes, either through the 3% creep (see my earlier post) or in any other way. He emphasises the risk that he may not get 90% in which case he can’t use CA. In that case, if PGH is still listed (as it probably would be), the price may fall- but it might go up! It’s true there is a risk that he gets stuck below 90% and then the market price falls. However, if you are convinced that the shares are worth more than 84c, you may not be concerned re the short-term price. Today, it's a standoff between bidder and remaining holders with neither side budging. In fact the holdouts actually have the power now: you have options, he can’t change anything. He gambled that by increasing the bid to 84c and by saying it is final, holders will be frightened into selling out. Bidders often take that gamble: sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. RG took the risk by being mean, and may have misjudged. Perhaps if he had offered 90c, it would have tipped the balance of sentiment. This is RG’s problem, not yours. There is no chance of a higher bid now- but he says he won’t sell to another bidder. One would think that if he fails now he will come back in 6 months or later (not earlier) with a new bid. RG can’t force holders to sell to him now- unless he reaches 90%. That is why he is so keen to bluff some more shareholders into accepting (or selling him o market at 84c). Until he gets to 90% he is stuck. He can only hope that these tactics scare enough holders into accepting, If not, he can extend the bid for months hoping that 5%+ out of the holdout 15% will trickle in, and when he reaches the magic 90%, he can wrap it up. If he doesn’t get 90% he is stuck with minority holders- and likely unable to delist either, unless a very large number of the current holders (see WT’s work) cave in.
Despite RG’s bluster, this is a standoff. I think it’s highly likely that –if he fails now-he will rebid at some time after the statutory gap of at least 6 months is up. If he did, who knows what the price would be: all other things being equal one would expect a higher price to ensure bid’s success, but if the business does badly in the short term he might rebid at less than 84c.
It’s poor that the independent PGH directors seem to have retired from the fray- so shareholders are left to do their own thinking.
Not advice.
