I like RFEs activities but have spent a day going through its anns & reports. There's a lot of TA support & cheering for it but there's some holes and mystery with RFE. While I can see the potential lets stay as real as the company & its analysts have also discovered to their embarassment...
AGM slides of 28.11.08 the graph (slide 7) forecasts FY09 revenue $19m(approx.)But cashflow to Dec08 has it about same as previous half yr $0.7m so the fullyear won't be anywhere near that.
Lets see how analysts did.Hartley Aug08 forecast was $18.7m (based on $US8/mcf and 147mmcf production). But March09 we are down to $5M ($5.5/mcf & 158mmcf)which is still as a stretch based on Dec08 actuals.
Despite having so few wells there is way too much volatility around RFE & analyst foreacsting just months ago, albeit some due to price drop, but its not confidence building and will be one reason why SP could remain subdued.
Hartleys & Chess's (hey when they get a special ann. of their own you know the company is doing some spin) 600 wells start getting quoted and HC posters start calculating it'll only take x number of weeks to get another 20 drilled,take a pinch of salt.
There is also a bit of mystery around the Oaklahoma JV. announced 8.08.08, declaring 20% interest. But their Sept qtrly quotes 26%.
The Hartleys March09 quotes 40,000 EOK acres as being in the JV. Seems like they are getting more detail than public investors. There has been no clear outline of this JV. Why? I would have thought that when something as big as that gets arranged then we need to know its shape and obligations - we can't figure out how to value it.
So we don't know the partners, how long it'll run or how it fits in with company's repeated stratgey to have 100% owned assets. A JV is contradicting this.
I am starting to consider there might be a grand cap. raising being planned?
Can someone help with some feedback ?
RFE Price at posting:
49.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
