These are the notes from my diary since the 19th May.
May 19. Interesting developments today, 2:49pm the sp hit the day’s low on of $0.115 with 5k volume. This turned the vol model from selling to buying. The close at $0.12 changed that back & now indicates the volume today is selling.
The price was contained within the ML lines of both the active forks & made a spinning top. Indecision by the market but appears to be being held at the lower end of the range.
May 20. Open below prev close. The last time that happens saw the start of the last rally up to $0.15 off the two year low.
Still appears to be a consolidation around the ML & W2 lines & top of box C. Low volume & model indicates buying today. Possible bearish divergence forming on the daily chart.
The weekly chart is also showing some indecision with the small candle but the volume was low after the large vol breakout the previous week which could be just a pause to consolidate after that break of the down trend. The monthly atm is also showing the signs of a breakout on larger volume so far at twice the previous month.
May 23, Another lower open than prev but closed unchaged. Seems to be supported around the dotted red parallel, the base of the trading range & the green ML. Volume drying up. Must be close to a turn up. Divergence still headed down though.
May 24. Closed on the low. Higher relative volume, Base of box still solid. All trend lines still influencing the range.
May 25. Looks good, Nice spinning top candle. Lower volume. Close above Green ML. Reversal coming?
May 26. Closed down on base again. Higher Volume. Red dotted parallel line looks like resistance now. Still tracking the Green ML. Lowest volume day for weeks. Good sign?. Divergence very pronounced now but low may be in.
May 27. Red dotted parallel line still resistance. Higher vol than Frid. Base of box seems like it will hold. Nice flag formed today.
May 30. Gap open from last close take off right on the red parallel line. Break of that line plus the grey down trending line parallel marking the channel.
Great finish, close at the high almost to the Red ML. The immediate support should be at $0.13 if the rally continues. Well positioned for a break thru the ML. If the sp breaks the box top the immediate resistance should be at the blue dotted line (parallel to the top MLH.
Volume model today shows selling which is possibly the mm trying to get some momentum happening. Divergence indicator turned back up sharply. There will be some resistance at $0.14. Could pause here or small retrace.
May 31. Momentum stalled. Sold down on larger relative volume. Closed near the dotted red parallel. Maybe a bounce off that tomorrow but looks more like a trip back down to the base of the range more likely. Volume model says its buying but OBV says its churning.
June 1. Closed on low just under the dotted parallel, Volume dropped & models say buying.
June 2. Very low relative volume today closed back down on the base. Looks like the pennant has failed.
June 3. Retesting the base again with increasing volume. At 130pm md is looking sick. Drop through base of box is on the cards. MD screen shows support at $0.11.
June 6. Attempt to rally off the base perhaps. Good volume today but still just avg. looks like some accumulation happening. Volume mov falling steadily, (21 day avg)
June 7. Low vol again closed back on base line.
June 8. More of the same today the mm seems to be holding the sp here, Probably see an attempted sell off soon I think. Does not appear to be any interest in buying when the sp looks to rise.
June. 9 Boring. Attempt to move higher but no interest, vol staying low.
June 10. Another low vol attempt to rise.
June 14. Base of box still solid, volume model showing as buying.
June 15. As above. Boring, needs an announcement but doubt if we get it yet, maybe last week of fin year.
June 16. Closed on base for 4th day in row, looks like being set up for a shakeout. OB/OS indicator turned down.
June 17. Volume increasing last three days, closed on low again won’t be long I think to see shakeout. Divergence indicator showing bearish divergence.
June 20. That’s what we need to see. Lrge vol wide spread bar, down day. Good bounce off the Red MLH & close near the Green fork ML. Could get a rally tomorrow. The vol shows as churning. Probable accumulation of 140,000 (15% of days vol)
June 21. Good open, stronger looking candle, vol about half yesterday so probably not ready to run yet. Looks like a successful shakeout.
June 22. Gap open, closed during day (only 55k traded at 0.11so looks contrived). Low volume. Bulk of vol was at $0.115.
Candle looks negative with potential low down to $10 – 105 again tomorrow.
BUT the close was made after market on 673 volume.
So looks like the accumulation/readjusting of accounts is still happening. Potential retest of $0.12 again tomorrow.
