There are lots of people hurting here at the moment. Lots of frustration, stress, and pain. All because we have no news.
So why have they not announced anything in line with their promise?
We can choose between:
1. Incompetence
2. Homework eaten by dog
3. The 'thing' that was going to get this thing started has already been announced (the reserves upgrade), but it had no effect.
4. The 'thing(s)' that are going to get this thing started are yet to occur.
If it's any combination of 1, 2, and 3 we are stuffed - we all know that. If the oppies fail it will be a long, long road from here.
So what if it's item 4 as hinted at by posters who have been in contact with the Directors? What are the 'announcables' (thank you Hollowmen) that could possibly put the oppies in the conversion zone?
a) Reserves Upgrade? No, we just had one of those.
b) Frac and Stimulate? No, insufficent cash.
c) IO Royalties? This is sure to be in the mix, but these estimates would have been known for a very long time now.
d) Sudden surge in flow rates? Umm, no.
e) Investor Presentations? Nope - these will only restate what's already in the public domain, with a little spin added for good measure.
f) ROW? Maybe, but that won't get us into the oppies butter zone.
g) Farm-in? Possible.
h) Field Sale? Possible.
So, we are waiting on the occurence of some 'event' that will (in the minds of the Directors at least) have a dramatic effect on the SP. That leaves us only with a farm in or field sale as the possible big ticket item in my view. If I am wrong (I invested in GDN so I have form...) then it's a) to f) that they are relying on and things will continue to be pretty grim.
Or maybe I'm over-analysing and their dog simply ate their homework.
Cheers,
Disco
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