a september - november equity rally could do the trick, if the...

a september - november equity rally could do the trick, if the $US is rallying for reasons that their economy is improving which is hard to believe that the worst is behind us then look for headlines that demand is picking up again. this will boost commodities as global recession fears subside into the next few months. China will be the catayst. at the moment they are too busy with the olympics. $US will rally short term maybe to 79-80 US/INDX which will take gold down to $740- $750's. but not to worry because $AU is to tank to 0.80- 0.83 when the RBA lowers rates next month so that will put $AU gold above $890 still. OIL and costs will reduce into the next qtr as we shall see $100 or less.

The numbers may be differnt going foreward but I expect the equities like NCM and LGL to rise back to $30 and $3.00 by years end.

so many factors flip and change which causes volatility short term but it usually settles after that and prices stablise to more realistic values. every gold stock is oversold currently. the last 4 weeks have been a massivechange and flush out of high leverage. new money needs to get it going again

be prepared to stick it out and I would buy more at $20-$21 range if there is a chance and usually sit back and ride it through the best time of the season going into january 2009