Hopefully a green day today, page-48

Hi All

This talk of impending commerciality sent me scurrying back to my AGM notes, wherein Cath says:

> Minimum economic field size is 200m and "it's feasible we can prove 300m with two wells if we drill the core". FAR has already announced 220m at SNE1; there is no doubt 2 and 3 will smash 300 out of the park. My guess? It will double it. Bumper - with more to come at SNE4 and, please Lord, Bellatrix above it.

> At the AGM, Cath forecast the current three-well program would be Q4 2015 and Q1 2016. That is pretty well on track. Why is that important? Because she went on to say: "We hope to declare commerciality between mid-2016 and early '18 - entirely dependent on the appraisal evaluation". By any standards that evaluation has been outstanding, which leads one to think DOC will be at the earlier end of Cath's estimate - mid-2016. We now have Malcy saying DOC is imminent. This would beat Cath's timetable, but then everything else about this project has exceeded expectations, so DOC within a few weeks would not totally surprise.

With nearly 10 months having passed, the AGM notes take on new perspective. For example, the Chairman talking about the tiger we have by the tail:

"We have to be sharp and make sure we are not steam-rolled." Cue the recruitment of The Admiral and The Chef. Cue the earlier-than-expected capital raise. Cue Nic Limb's assurance that he and Cath have "a fair bit of mongrel in us". Cue also the commissioning of the RISC reviews, as Nic also said: "We work the technical data hard, rather than rely on the Operator." Nic went on to say COP was certain to assume operatorship and this would be welcomed by FAR.

One gets the distinct impression FAR is now totally frustrated with Cairn's intransigence and has decided as much as is possible to wrest back control of its own destiny. Hence RISC, hence yesterday's Q&A - both clearly with intent to boost the SP in the absence of JV commentary about the growing behemoth that is SNE.

There are billions and billions of dollars to be made in Senegal. This will become blindingly apparent to all in the next few months but is already known to the dark forces that run world oil. These forces will do their damndest to skin FAR alive; their agents, through their bots, are currently hard at it five days a week in broad daylight. Last week Malcy signalled a too-early TO as the biggest threat facing FAR shareholders and that battle is truly underway.

Personally, I'm happy to have a pack of mongrels running our team, because we'll need them to be strong. I reckon they can do it. In fact I've got money on it. We all have.

OOO