HZN 0.00% 19.0¢ horizon oil limited

Horizon partner take over, page-36

  1. 278 Posts.
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    When sold do you mean hedged? That was indeed a timely move however it is an increasingly small part of their production that is hedged and it is not just that they have hedging in place it is the average value of the oil they sell that is important. E.g when they did the previous facility it was great they had hedging but the oil price was close to their hedge price so there was little difference. Now there is a big difference so the average price they will be receiving assuming oil stays at around $60/bbl will be probably ~75$/bbl possibly less from mid 2015.

    In actual fact their reserves in PNG have not grown (you need to take FID on projects to achieve that) and their reserves in China are falling by virtue of production. NPV of a field is greatest the day it enters production (i.e. all the capex spent but no revenue gathered) and generally falls thereafter as you produce out the revenue stream. This is very much the case in China, there is still a lot of value left but NPV is down off its peak. The fall in oil price compounds this.

    I doubt very much some general M&A activity in the space is going to excite senior lenders, though I do imagine it will get the note holders going if they get a chance to re strike their convertibility down. Similar for exploration I am afraid, doesn't help negotiating with senior lenders until it becomes reserves.

    As for attending conferences, I assume that was said tongue in cheek. If every junior oil and gas company who attended a conference was guaranteed a share price rising investing would be a lot easier! I notice New Guinea Energy were there too but their performance hasn't exactly been stellar - or perhaps you are long them too.
 
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