Hi FARites,A while back, I got stuck into Chef about posting...

Hi FARites,

A while back, I got stuck into Chef about posting information that although useful, was not particularly insightful. Work was pretty busy at the time so I did not follow up with any detailed posting of my own. Apologies Chef!!

Below I have put together a short and summarised analysis on the situation in Iran as I currently see it.

For disclosure, I was 8 years in the RAN, in aviation, amphib, Surface combatant and EW and have had a continuing interest in world affairs since that time. And as my handle suggests, am currently trading in a treasury environment where political and world events are a constant research topic.
I say this not to boast but to give you a chance to assess where the post is coming from.

My aim was to provide some analysis on Iran and the ‘exitus belli’ in the Lower Gulf AO. All details listed here are open sourced, unclassified and where I am stating my opinion, it will be clearly stated. The piece will be broken up into whether Iran will close the gulf or not and if so, the likely consequences. I have not even tried to predict longer or even medium term movements in the price of oil as a result of that. If I could accurately do that, I would not be here and this analysis would be priced accordingly. Nonetheless, I assert my right as its author and therefore, equally accept any mistakes made herein.

Why are we talking about Iran again?

With Iran progressing towards enrichment of uranium and their nuclear program development approaching ‘Irreversibility’ (Cohen), there is increasing concern within the Gulf and around the world about the influence a nuclear armed Iran could exert on its neighbours. Leaks, deliberate or not, from the Israeli Knesset a few months back showed that Ehud Barak and Bibi Netanyahu had actively proposed hitting Iran’s facilities to halt this progress. Just to add fuel to the fire, there was the shutdown of planning for the recent assassination attempt of the Saudi Ambassador to the US which was firmly pointed at Iran. (Revolutionary Guards or Intelligence services? Hard to say as they often work contra to the others aims).

Would an airstrike work now?

The Israelis have the best air force in that region and have form with the Osirak (Operation Opera) and Deir ez-Zor (Operation Orchard) strikes to halt Iraqi and Syrian programmes times have changed and they would dearly love US participation this time. Hitting Persia is a lot harder than a site on the Arabian Peninsula and would involve transiting a lot more of Saudi and Iraqi airspace than when hitting Iraq in the 80s. Although the Saudis would probably (my opinion) turn a blind eye again, with the distances involved, either there would be a need for ATA refuelling or the more difficult to explain sight of aircraft with Flag of David Roundels landing and getting refuelled at the King’s airfields. There is zero appetite for another war against Muslims in the White House (with Obama’s re-engagement of the Muslim world as well as trying to benefit diplomatically from the Arab Spring) and Netanyahu and Obama are hardly best buddies.
Even if the aircraft had the legs to get there, which targets to hit? Before Libya owned up to its program a few years back, most of its facilities were completely unknown to western intelligence. With the Iranians moving most of their work to the Fordow Deep Underground Facility near Qum, you will either need the biggest bunker buster ever made in your inventory or be prepared to drop your own bucket of expanding sunshine to shut their sunshine factory down. Not a good look!

Why not just wait and let the regime collapse on itself?

Mahmoud Ahmedinijad (President) has accused Iran’s religious governing council of stirring up the Americans to make his next presidential bid more difficult. Pot, this is kettle, Over! There is plenty of finger pointing to go around in that little sandpit but either way, nuclear weapons are seen as a national goal by all sides in Iran so no matter who wins that fight, there is little disincentive to shut the programme down. Even though the uprising last year showed that Iran is deeply split, any attach (my opinion) would unite Iranians against the outside world and would set off a potential terror spree across Iraq, Israel and the US.
OK then, but doesn’t Iran also use the Strait of Hormuz?
Yes, they do. In fact, shutting the Strait hurts them more than it hurts us and it would hurt us a fair bit. They rely on their oil exports and although the Chinese has recently reduced their intake of Iranian oil, they still make a fair percentage of their GDP via oil from the gulf. The Saudis have reported that they would pick up the slack but their East-West Pipeline can move 5 million barrels a day to the port of Yanbu, well short of the 17 million barrels per day that leave the Gulf. (2009 figures).

Alright, can they even shut the thing down?

Short answer? Yes. The Strait of Hormuz is a little under 90 miles long and between 22 and 35 miles wide. It has two deep-water channels of approximately a mile wide, one inbound and one outbound. There are a variety of ways to shut the strait down or at least make its safe navigation problematic. Keep in mind that most of the world would see an Iranian shut down as cause for intervention (my opinion) and would guarantee Iranian naval and air force power projection assets would have a half life measured in hours but that does not mean that they would not be a very big thorn in the oil hungry world’s side.
What capabilities do they have to shut the gulf?

1) Sink a super tanker or two
This is probably the easiest for them militarily (shore based cruise missiles and ASM toting aircraft) but is the most overt and bellicose act they could do. Apart from the environmental disaster to their own coast and others, refloating a super tanker would take time and resources

2) Mine the Strait
Mining the strait would also be fairly easy and could be achieved more quickly that it had been in the 80s. More importantly, modern mines can target specific ships via their particular sonic signature, magnetic signature, position in a convoy as well as track a particular target by funnelling down its wake.

3) Board a ship and take it into port
Piracy basically, using Naval Commandoes out of Bandar Abbas and although having no effect on physically transiting the Strait, would raise concerns and insurance rates for oil companies

4) Blockade the entrance
Iran possesses Kilo class conventional sub (best suited just outside the gulf in the Arabian Sea, Nth Korean sourced mini-subs (suitable for intra-gulf) and Revolutionary Guard ‘Boghammers’ (missile, gun and suicide IED armed speedboats). Although operating outside the strait dilutes their effectiveness, these three assets could conduct a blockade on the gulf for a short period of time before a pincer movement by the Bahrain based 5th Fleet and offshore Somalia Anti Piracy fleet reduced them to man made reefs.

Well what about the 5th Fleet

Capability-wise, the 5th fleet is one of the smaller fleets in the USN but regionally, it’s the big fish with two carrier- and one amphibious battle group. Any action against Iran would more than likely (my opinion) be supported by the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia who loathe Iran. I will not speak to any specific capabilities of the 5th except for its mine counter measures forces (MCM).
CTF 52 if the Mine Countermeasures Task force of the NATO forces in the gulf, overseen by the 5th Fleet. Comprising mine hunters, mine sweepers, helicopter MCM squadrons as well as Clearance and EOD divers from various nationalities, this is probably the most effective (my opinion) MCM task force in the world at the moment (individual units such as our own RAN clearance divers not withstanding as they are second to none). Estimates from FAS state that a mined gulf could be cleared in approximately 4 to 6 weeks. Clearage of a wreck would require salvage divers and has not been estimated.

Summary

Is Iran really going to risk international condemnation, sparking a regional war and destroying their own GDP to make a point against Israel and the US? I doubt it but then who’s to know. They have perfected the art of diplomatic ambiguity and have timing on their side at the moment. But either way, that time will eventually run out. Israel is getting an itching trigger finger, there is a chance that a hawkish republican may become president in 12 months and their program is getting to a stage that will demand action.
If they managed to close the gulf using any of the above methods, my opinion is that it would be a short term issue measured in weeks to months and that it would have an immediate upward effect on the price of oil and an equally immediate downward effect on weakly recovering global growth. Sea trade, however, would have a longer term price impact with increased insurance rates remaining higher for longer.
I am more concerned with the Egypt running out of international reserves from a dying tourist industry and raising fees for Suez Canal transits than Iran acting against their own survival instincts. I hope this short and sweet analysis is helpful to you all. Please feel free to update it with your own research.