Of course - there is no doubt that it would not rise if the fund...

Of course - there is no doubt that it would not rise if the fund was massively underperforming the index. However no matter how you look at it Sebastion & co will do everything possible and are incentivised to keep the SP up once they set that target of the conversion price - and that is what I am alluding to. I have watched it many times before and profited by engaging in the possibility. One good example I can remember is Sandon Capital at the time of its option conversion. The free option can be likened to a Clayton's version of a capital raising - the capital raise you have when you are not announcing one and company's strive to make it work.