Yeah mate you're out on a ledge here. That's a slippery slope...

Yeah mate you're out on a ledge here. That's a slippery slope because saying something is priced in, is saying it was certain before it was known. So if unknown drill results are certain is the MRE also certain? Is the PFS results also certain? We know permits aren't certain, but financing is nearly certain in the current environment. It's a slippery slope. But let's see where we get to if you keep going down that slope!

Instead of just saying it's all priced in how about you tell us what is currently in the price?

Is the entire drill package pre Winter drilling priced in? If so that's estimated to be 90-110mt @1.1/2%.

What about the winter drilling and undrilled pegmatites?

And the PFS based on that initial MRE, is that priced in too?

Because at a guess when we get to that point I think it looks something like the following:
Plant: min 4mtpa, big deposit needs a big plant. I'd say this gets bigger but for now, 4mtpa let's say (US$500m + 50% just to be a real tight arse and cover the work on the lakes)
Production: c.500ktpa based on 70% recoveries and 1.1/2% feed - Atlantic is 2mtpa operation 1.22% with 63% recoveries for 255ktpa
AISC: $500/t same as Sayona with a15yr mine life only going at 60mt of the resource.

I'm not in the business of predicting prices so choose your own. But here's a sample of what the EBITDA looks like.

SC6 @ $7000 = EBITDA of $6500 x 500kt: US$3.25b
SC6 @ $5000 = EBITDA of $4500 x 500kt: US$2.25b
SC6 @ $3000 = EBITDA of $2500 x 500kt: US$1.25b
SC6 @ $1000 = EBITDA of $5500 x 500kt: US$250m

There is a wealth of development risk to be factored in, but this example is just touching sides of what this deposit is capable of. Auto OEMs and battery makers will be throwing the cheapest funding imaginable to get lifetime offtake on this. Ford gave Liontown US$300m at 4%.

The blue sky of this project looks like Liontown or Pilbara. And I don't think anyone could say today was priced into those stocks 2-4 years ago.