ASX Large Caps. Weekly Wrap for week ended 6/12/24.Large Caps...

ASX Large Caps. Weekly Wrap for week ended 6/12/24.

Large Caps Chart (ILC).

ILC (an ETF for the 20 Leaders) was down a little this week, -0.16%% for the week. XTL was down a little more -0.32%. There's never an exact correlation between the ETF and the Index - "tracking error" - but it usually evens out over time.

XJO (ASX200) was down -0.18% for the week. Not much difference between them.

The DMI indicator - bottom panel - shows that the 20 Leaders have been in an up-trend since late April, 2024, with only a slight dip before then for a couple of weeks in April. That's been a great performance for most investors.

20 Leaders individual stock performances over the past week.

Seven out of 20 stocks were positive this week. The best two were Wesfarmers +3.1% and BXB +2.42%. They were followed by Rio +1.3% and TLS +1.27%. There's not much of a theme in those four, each coming from a different sector in the market (Discretionary, Industrials, Materials and Telecoms)

Worst four performing stocks were also a mixed bag:

• GMG -3.54% (Property)
• AMC -3.45% (Materials)
• S32 +2.42 (Materials)
• Woodside -1.84% (Energy)

Although AMC and S32 are both from Materials, they come from very different industry groups: S32 from Mining and AMC from Packaging.

Price Projection for 20 Leaders.

ILC is currently at $32.35. Using a Fibonacci Price Projection and Horizontal Support we get a figure of 32.13. ILC is currently at 32.3. That implies a fall of another 17 points or -0.4%.

If that support level fails, we could be looking at a much lower level, perhaps around 31.7 which is a major Fibonacci retracement level and nearly -2% lower than the current price.

If the 32.13 price doesn't hold then we'll be looking at a serious pull-back. That seems unlikely at this stage.

Seasonality.

In my ASX Weekly Wrap, I noted that the coming week tends to do poorly. ASX Futures on Friday night were down -0.3%. So the coming week is likely to be poor. But my price projection (above) suggests that any pull-back is likely to be minor. The first week of December has been negative, when it is usually positive, so we could get some reversion to the mean in the coming week.

Seasonality favours defensives. Stocks like GMG (Property), TCL (Infrastructure), TLS (Telecoms) and WOW (Staples). That sounds counter-intuitive given the usual bullish bias for the stockmarket in December.

Take care.