Thanks rodb, and others for your posts.Now whilst I believe...

Thanks rodb, and others for your posts.

Now whilst I believe whole heartedly in your basic sentiment that Hot Copper is a medium to voice opinion, I am not so certain that I share your enthusiasm for cucifiction of JH and the CTP management.

Firstly let me make it clear to all that I certainly share your frustrations as I have been a shareholder since day dot in this company. VERY long term obviously. I share the discontentment in many of the goings on however much of it is explainable and understandable. Some of it not so much.

Like most companies, CTP suffered greatly at the hands of the great global recession and financial crisis. We are in an economic and trading environment of sublime volatility and a time where good news is rarely seen as good any more. You need to look at the company and its relative achievements over the years and admit that progress is being made. Yes the "breakthrough" has yet to be made, but this is certainly what we are looking for. Strangely, in a bull market you'd never see this level of chastisement for the job JH has done so far. Moreover, one major discovery and all will be forgiven (moreso by those still holding obviously).

I will keep this about the recent developments (or lack thereof) in order to avoid a long winded diatribe.

Yes the "oil flow likely" was the single greatest cock-up in CTP's history. I have certainly seen worse on the ASX, but remaining CTP-centric, this was an epic blunder. I will also offer that he was a victim of stupidity as much as its purveyor. He received the wrong information from the drillers who suspected incorrectly on mistaken information derived from the well, but then again JH should have been more careful. I say we need to let that go and move on, as I am assured JH has learned his lesson. To even think otherwise and still hold the stock is baffling. The mistake was made, and it cost us dearly. This has made JH even more resolute to deliver a success to his faithful holders as he believes that even with that monumental error and the CTPOA failure, CTP has the potential to pay everyone back in spades (or barrels in this case) given we stick with this project.

I cannot comment specifically obviously as I am but a humble holder like you all, but I can (and bloody hell, I WILL!) speculate.

Firstly, some of you touched on the question of why are we not moving on? I think the answer is rather more simple than you think.

1.
The obvious truth is we cannot re-drill Surprise on its own. How many companies do you know who drill one hole and thats it? Surely a drilling contractor would not sign a deal, and haul all of their equipment to a remote location for one well? Who would do that? Point them in my direction and I assure you I will approach them on behald of CTP and at least get a statement of intent.

2.
Question marks surround the Aussie commodities and the AUD currency strength. People are viewing the strength as negative for the export market, dominated by commodities. Investors are flocking out of commodities. Although today the tide seems much weaker than the past week, I would venture to say that it isn't over though a falling dollar is helping. America will cease its GE2 money printing soon and that should stabalise the AUD/USD relationship. Crossed fingers that the U.S manufacturing was aided enough that come September, interest rates may rise in the states? Seems fantastical, but we can hope. Until then, we have to be careful about how we move forward and how we announce it. We seem better off taking out times in the volatile sidelines and orchestrating a concrete plan rather than ridding cavalier into the unknown unforgiving future.

3.
This ties in to point 2. but I must say that it should be obvious. We need money. Capital raising seems the only way. I mean, we do have that facility of convertible bonds, but given the dissatisfaction of its last usage, and I suspect the exercise price is near $0.08... possibly higher? (someone comment?) then I presume they are out of the question. There is always the possibility of an Insito capital raising I suppose as we really only need enough cash to cover re-drilling surprise, and our minimum commitments for the year. I don't know how possible that is, but with the insitos dominating the top shareholders list, that could be an indicator? Not sure, purely speculating.

Anyway, I think my point is being made. I believe that work is being done behind the scenes, and that a plan is still being formulated based on talks with possible JVs and contractors for the potential drilling campaign.

I have no evidence to base this on, however I believe my logic had method. Time will reveal how close my hypotheses are and just how CTP are going to move forward. I reiterate that a capital raising is the only way, and given the support Surprise has received and the obvious interest from JV potentials, I say if JH pulls this one off, it will be his greatest achievement. Much lies beyond and I am trying my best to stick around and watch it all unfold. I believe the share price will need to be higher, say circa $0.10-$0.12 before this can happen logically. Perhaps those arguing a JV is around the corner have a point. I suppose any announcement pertaining to an imminent JV deal could easily boost the share price.. even without an official MOU. Who knows, and my guess is as good as yours. I see something of that nature as one of the few ways we can transcend the threats I mentioned earlier. SDL proved that with their rise from $0.15 to $0.66, and still no MOU. They are completing a capital raising and they are still more than 150% above their start price.Yes I know they are different as they have an abundant resource of Iron Ore, and CTP has yet to officialise a resource, but the premise is the same. Good news like JVs will buoy the market interest in CTP and get us over the line potentially. Otherwise, possibly something else? Help with guessing that one guys, please.

Guys, this is just my humble opinion and like me, you should all do your own research and make your own conclusions. If you disagree with me, do so and you know I will listen! I love hearing well constructed opposition.

Thanks for reading. Talk to you all soon!

RB