Housing Crash 2019??, page-181

well I have bought in a little; a few reasons

1) the house price increases (Syd and Mel) were 12-13% a year for a couple years up to 18 months ago; so a 15-20% dive will just get the prices back to where they were a couple of years ago; so loan holders really just get back to square one... but no huge individual losses - bankruptcies

2) I like WBC is trying to get rid of the investor, high leveraged loans; a preemptive move

3) I like WBC ear marked the $235 mill of 'oops, we will need to pay back to consumers'

4) I think a slow, slow multi year crash (to 20%) is actually good

5) I think (my opinion) the most likely worst case is priced in; no one can price in a huge crash

6) govt will not let banks crash; if property becomes a problem, they just drop interest rates; I believe the next rate move will be DOWN; this will allow the 'walking dead' scenario I envisage; in a low rate scenario, a bank with a price that does not grow for 3 or 5 years, but pays the franked dividend will be a good place to park some of your money

7) the Royal Commission report did show the govt does not want to spank the banks too badly