I respectfully disagree with 90+ day delinquencies being the leading indicator. Some time ago I used to think it would be but not anymore.
Lehman brothers had collapsed before default rates had significantly increased.
I believe the best leading indicator is building approvals. Developers are the closest to the pulse of the housing market. Building approvals in Sydney started to turn downwards more than 12 months ago....
Default rates will be the final nail in the coffin. Not the leading indicator. IMO
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