I dont think you can argue with the figures/charts he provides, it is just how you interpret them. You interpret it one way I interpret it another - differences of opinion are healthy and that's what makes the world go around.
What I will say is that it is very difficult to predict when economic fundamentals will ring true, but over the long term they always do. Just have a look at the credit cycles over the past century, they can be put out of kilter for decades on end, but they always return to long term medium levels at some point. As you can see we are currently in the mother of all credit cycles, and the banking problems currently being experienced throughout the globe will be as good a trigger as any to reverse this cycle. Once this cycle is broken it's very difficult to break the downward cycle. When i look at these potential risks when balanced against the current pricing of assets (specifically property), it doesn't strike me as being a particularly good risk to take. Give me a reason why i should believe it's different this time?
I am not as bearish as Mr Keen, as i dont think our situation is quite as perilous as Japans was (there asset prices were even higher), but the Western worlds economic prospects over the next 3-10 years are not good - simple as that.
Mr Keen is certainly not on is own in his view, and you have to admit a lot of what he has been saying is in fact coming true - he just couldnt pick the timing. He is looking at economies on a long term basis, whereas all the economists at the banks and property companies you seem to listen are focused on the period until their next bonus payment. I am far more comfortable listening to his view of the economy, than these banks/property economists, whose future prosperity is solely reliant on asset prices increasing.
