housing survey, page-17

to say housing wont drop in price is just crazy.

What drives the housing boom? its all credit, credit to borrow to buy house's.

why did it boom so much, coz interest rates were at a all time low.

what happend last time the rates where high? house pricing fell

look what the interest rates have done since the first 6 months of subprime honey moon periods expiring and the money lost. look how the bank stocks NAB/ANZ etc have been effected by these new costs. look how they are putting up the interest rates.

now there is still 3.5 years of subprime morgages sold who's honey moon periods have not expired, when they do and the banks lose more and more money, the cost of borrowing goes up. the banks on charge that to people with debts.


somone on $60K can look after a $260K loan.. if subprime push's interest rates up to 11% they can afford a $200K loan, if interest rates are pushed up to 15% (and it was 17.5% before and the economy was not in this much trouble back then) but if they banks charge 15% interest rates then somone on $60K a year can only afford to look after a $150K loan

now add to this, the average mortgage is $250K, how many banks are going to kick out people from their homes.. the housing market will be flooded with sellers, and no one will have the buying power to pay $350K for a house!

if you think 5% drop is not achiveable, the god help you!

housing has fallen by 30% many times, and we have good reason for it to fall.. a house selling for $350K is not worth this.

how can a basic house that sold for $100K be selling for $280K just 8 years later? wages and material costs have not gone up? so this increase the cost of a house is nothing more than a fat profit margin that subprime can and most probably will start cutting down to the bone.

30% - 50% drop in hous prices by the end of subprime (about 3.5 years away) is very posible.

stock market died by 30% when the news first came out, look at all the banks, they are down abotu 20 - 30% now in stock value. interest rates are up, and will continue to climb up for the next 3.5 years as banks keep losing money.

even the US market is at an 11 year loan.

the housing market boom is at its peak, and I personally know a lot of people who invested in property at the start of this decade who have unloaded all their housing because they belive the same thing.

if you want to buy a house, just wait 3 more years!