Very well put. Basically there needs to be a macro economic...

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avagadro

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17/10/19

13:29

Post #: 40931162
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Originally posted by Menta ↑

We've had periods of low interest rates and low house price growth (eg. late 1990's) and periods of high interest rates and high house price growth (eg. late 1980's) - and vice versa!

So, contrary to popular opinion, interest rates do not determine the larger trend in house prices. The mood of the herd does.When people feel optimistic about the future they borrow more and more money to invest, and banks feel more secure to lend more and ever riskier debt. This leads to credit expansion and rising asset values. And when people become pessimistic about the future they borrow less and less money to invest, and banks feel less secure so they lend less and instigate more stringent lending requirements. This leads to credit contraction and falling asset values.

So social mood trends are the primary driver of this ebb and flow of credit expansion/contraction and asset appreciation/depreciation worldwide and throughout history. While the stock market is the ideal barometer of social mood, at various degrees of trend, credit growth is the barometer of housing investment social mood so it's the best forecaster of future house prices.

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Very well put. Basically there needs to be a macro economic recovery event or a massive influx of foreign capital into Oz to supplant our own faltering domestic purchasing ability.

Both are not likely for the time being, especially with the treat of QE and the subsequent trashing of our AUD to come.
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