I like your thinking Max. My noggin is geared very similarly. The grains are winning land world over from crops like cotton and sugar and also from pastures and fodder crops.
I'm with you in taking a longer term view. I think to get the big moves you really have to be patient. I find it hard to believe the furtherest out months for some of the meats are actually in backwardation. I like that as it seems to signal the funds haven't done their research too far out for some commodities. But in saying that I never disrespect them LOL.
From a more technical perspective I am also wanting to keep a closer eye on the commodities that are yet to take out their all time highs. Sugar was around 66c in 1974 with the last oil crisis and cotton was 117c in 1995.
This is a great link for historical charts on most commonly traded commodities:
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/charts.asp
I am tending to want to play the needs but in saying that I am currently only exposed to the meats. Looking for sugar, aluminium and maybe cotton exposure. Need another equities correction to shake the tree again. Maybe this week.
Technically sugar is looking juicy.
Who are you trading with Max? I am currently with MF Global though I am not 100% confident in them given the recent liquidity issues they have had with some bad clients. I want to find a broker with rock solid backing if that is at all possible in this world.
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- how about the meats max
I like your thinking Max. My noggin is geared very similarly....
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