How are you predicting this company's value?

I'm a lurker here but been holding since the run up with the Chinese seal.

I'm trying to work out how others are valuing this company, I see various comments of $5, $10, $15 near term pricing, what is the basis of this?

So the market cap last year at $0.4 was about $80M with no real plans for production. If the market has priced the company right, that means the inherent value of the ore in the ground is about $80M, factoring in risk and cost to develop the asset etc. Perhaps this is too big of an assumption and others see value where the market does not?

Taking the last study, the NPV post-tax was $256M.

Latest expectations are that production is going up, costs are going down, maybe they will use a more realistic IO price, so this should get better.

Now that's extracting 55 mt of the 175mt available, and it's the highest purity and easiest/cheapest ore to mine, so probably eroding the original $80M by maybe 40-50%, call it 40%, so remaining $48M value of ore in the ground without a path to production for the remaining 70% of ore.

So it would seem to me the company's market cap should be around $288M giving a share price of about $1.45? And that's ignoring the share price devaluation if they issue dividends instead.

Have I got this really wrong?

With the higher production numbers of 5 mtpa the NPV could go up, maybe $350-400M, but we're still nowhere near the share price often mentioned here.

To get to even $5, with a market cap of about $1B, you'd need 3 more similar sized projects on the go, the problem is there isn't enough ore for 3 more similar sized projects (only two more) and they would conceivably be more expensive to extract, so lower return. Maybe economies of scale will help, a port becomes available etc, but all very speculative.

How are others valuing the company?